Key points:
- According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US job openings fell to 7.4 million in June from a downwardly revised 7.7 million in May.
- There were 3.1 million quits in June, unchanged from the prior month, while the quits rate stood at 2.1%.
- Total layoffs and discharges fell slightly, and the layoff rate remained largely unchanged at 1%.
Today’s JOLTS report showed that the labor market remained resilient in June, but continued to cool gradually — a sign that fatigue may be building. Layoffs remained at historically low levels, but job openings were revised down in May and fell further in June. Hiring and quitting activity also remained muted, which hardly reflects an economy that is dynamically adding jobs or instilling confidence in workers.
Right now, the labor market is like a series of runners at mile 20 of a marathon. Some runners are still keeping pace using old momentum, but we’re starting to see many drop off. Information is showing early signs of hiring reacceleration as investment in and adoption of AI technologies grows, while the healthcare industry continues to press ahead at a solid pace. However, other industries, like wholesale trade and financial activities, have faded over the last year. Overall, the labor market is not collapsing, but it is starting to run on tired legs. In the months ahead, whether this slow fade becomes a stumble will depend on whether demand finds a second wind or if fatigue takes over.
