Key points:
- There were 7.8 million job openings nationwide in May, and openings have increased in each of the past two months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- The quits rate rose slightly to 2.1% in May.
- The layoff rate was 1% in May, a historically low level.
Against all expectations, the number of US job openings has increased for two consecutive months, the first such streak since openings peaked in early 2022. While encouraging, two months hardly make a trend, and several economic headwinds remain in play, including ongoing tariff uncertainty, geopolitical volatility, and rapid policy changes. The data may turn out to be noise, and the recent uptick in openings isn’t echoed in more recent data on job postings, which remain fairly flat. Still, it’s clear that employers are feeling the pressure to finally make decisions, even in the face of uncertainty.
Gains in May were led by increases in diverse sectors — including transportation, warehousing, and utilities — potentially driven by heightened import activity in advance of tariffs scheduled to take effect in July. Openings also rose in finance and insurance, an industry that may benefit from easing regulations currently under consideration. Without a clear picture of what may happen if and when the current tariff pause ends, employers may just be making decisions based on what they see today rather than trying to anticipate what happens tomorrow.
Today’s report shows that on-again/off-again tariff implementations and political volatility may be causing some uncertainty fatigue among business leaders tired of waiting and seeing, and eager to just move ahead in the short term and take longer-term challenges as they come. These recent numbers are positive, and we shouldn’t blame businesses for choosing action over indecision, even if they ultimately need to revisit these decisions in the coming months.
