• Over the past two decades, the US job recruiting landscape changed in two key ways: 1) the internet emerged as a dominant method to recruit workers, and 2) employer job openings trended upwards, while other labor market dynamics, including hiring, did not. 
  • These developments could be related, as the greater ease of advertising job openings online has potentially increased recruiting activity itself, but perhaps reduced the intensity with which some employers look to fill job openings.
  • Job seekers have likely benefited from the upward trend in job openings, as they now have more options to choose from. But to the extent low-intensity job openings have increased, it’s also likely caused frustrations, especially when the broader labor market is cooling.

After bursting on the scene in the early 2000s, internet-based tools quickly became a main recruitment method for employers in the US and other English-speaking economies, and their popularity continued to grow well into the 2010s. According to Statistics Canada, online job boards were utilized for 67% of Canadian job vacancies in 2015, before rising to 76% by 2019 and holding relatively steady since (79% in 2024).

Multi-panel line chart titled “Use of the internet to recruit was still growing in the late 2010s” shows the share of Canadian job vacancies employing different recruitment methods between 2015 and 2024. In 2024, the most common recruitment method was online job boards, rising in use from 67% to 79% of vacancies, while other methods like company websites and social media also rose. 
Multi-panel line chart titled “Use of the internet to recruit was still growing in the late 2010s” shows the share of Canadian job vacancies employing different recruitment methods between 2015 and 2024. In 2024, the most common recruitment method was online job boards, rising in use from 67% to 79% of vacancies, while other methods like company websites and social media also rose. 

In the US, the number of job postings on Indeed more than doubled (+112%) between January 2015 and January 2020, far exceeding the still solid 35% growth in overall job openings as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Since the start of the pandemic, however, Indeed job postings and official measures of openings have evolved similarly in the US and other advanced economies, suggesting adoption of the internet as a recruiting tool has stabilized. 

Line chart titled “Job postings were growing faster than job openings before 2020” shows monthly US job postings on Indeed, as well as total job openings as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, between 2015 and May 2025, with both series indexed to their January 2020 level. Job postings grew faster than openings before between 2015 and 2019, but have evolved similarly since. 
Line chart titled “Job postings were growing faster than job openings before 2020” shows monthly US job postings on Indeed, as well as total job openings as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, between 2015 and May 2025, with both series indexed to their January 2020 level. Job postings grew faster than openings before between 2015 and 2019, but have evolved similarly since. 

Falling costs have likely increased overall job vacancies, but with less of an impact on hiring 

The rise of the internet hasn’t just changed the way employers attract job seekers — it has also likely increased recruiting activity. 

Employers deciding whether to try to hire must assess if the benefits of an additional worker to their business (less their wages) exceed the costs of recruiting them. Posting a job vacancy is just one part of the hiring process, along with candidate evaluation (the latter of which there is relatively little data on). But with methods like online job boards helping cut job advertisement costs — by up to 80%, according to UK estimates — some employers that may have previously held off on starting a candidate search may now be more willing. And others may be less desperate to finish the process quickly if the costs of keeping the search going a little longer are more manageable. 

US job openings have remained cyclical as job posting costs have declined — while also trending upward, until recently. By contrast, other metrics related to recruiting, like hiring, have held steadier. The result has been a substantial decline in the job vacancy yield — the ratio of hires per job opening. Over the three months through April 2025, the US hiring rate averaged 3.5% while the job opening rate was 4.4%. When the hiring rate was the same level in Q1 2014, the job opening rate stood at just 3.0%. 

Multi-panel line chart titled “Hires have increasingly lagged job openings” with the left panel showing the hire rate and job opening rate between 2001 and 2025, while the right panel shows the vacancy yield. Aside from cyclical fluctuations, hires have remained relatively steady compared to a more upward trend in job openings. 
Multi-panel line chart titled “Hires have increasingly lagged job openings” with the left panel showing the hire rate and job opening rate between 2001 and 2025, while the right panel shows the vacancy yield. Aside from cyclical fluctuations, hires have remained relatively steady compared to a more upward trend in job openings. 

More opportunities, more ghost postings, or both?

Beyond just pushing up job openings themselves, the declining cost to post a job vacancy could have also contributed to the weaker link between openings and hires:

  • From an employer point of view, a greater number of job openings for a given number of job seekers will make it tougher to fill any individual opening. Perhaps then it’s unsurprising that hires haven’t kept up with the rising trend in job vacancies. 
  • However, falling costs to post a job could also lead some employers to recruit less intensely. For example, they might be more willing to hold out for the perfect candidate, even when suitable job applications are pouring in. In this case, the employer would still technically report having a job opening if surveyed by the BLS, but the opening would also be less likely to result in a hire in a given month. 

These two channels have different implications for job seekers. Job seekers benefit in the first case, even if hires don’t rise with openings, because they have more job opportunities to choose from. Some studies on the use of the internet for job search find it has helped job seekers find work faster, while others have emphasized technological change has improved match-quality of jobs ultimately started. However, if falling posting costs increase the number of “low intensity” openings, some job seekers will grow frustrated by a lack of response from employers. This could be a driver of recent reports around so-called “ghost postings,” or postings that stay active for long periods but appear to rarely result in meaningful interaction with applicants. 

Both trends could influence the evolution of the US Beveridge Curve, which plots the historical relationship between the job opening rate and the unemployment rate. The post-pandemic labor market since 2023 has been broadly characterized by elevated job vacancies, driven by a range of factors, but also consistent with falling costs boosting recruiting activity. However, the 4.2% unemployment rate over the three months through April 2025 was on average 0.4 percentage points higher than where it stood in 2018 and 2019, when the job openings rate matched its recent 4.4%. This modest “outward shift” of the Beveridge Curve could potentially reflect falling recruiting intensity, to the extent it has reduced the rate at which the unemployed find new work. 

Scatterplot titled “The Beveridge Curve has evolved over time” shows the relationship between the unemployment rate (x-axis) and job opening rate (y-axis), with data from 2021 through April 2025 (excluding 2020 to 2022). While unemployment was relatively low in April 2025, it was slightly higher than it was in 2018 and 2019, when the job opening rate matched its recent 4.4% level. 
Scatterplot titled “The Beveridge Curve has evolved over time” shows the relationship between the unemployment rate (x-axis) and job opening rate (y-axis), with data from 2021 through April 2025 (excluding 2020 to 2022). While unemployment was relatively low in April 2025, it was slightly higher than it was in 2018 and 2019, when the job opening rate matched its recent 4.4% level. 

Structural trends in hiring are always interacting with the cyclical state of the economy

Assessing the impact of technological change on hiring processes is difficult because other factors, including the overall state of the economy, as well as mismatches between job seekers and employers, are always driving swings in the labor market. Recruiting intensity itself has also historically been highly cyclical. Recent Indeed data on time-to-hire has shown employers taking longer to fill job postings in 2025 than in 2022, when the labor market was tighter. One potential reason is that with the employee quits rate down from earlier highs, there are fewer “urgent backfill” job openings employers need to quickly hire for. 

Job openings and hiring have both cooled in recent years, but the former is still elevated compared to historical levels. The greater ease of posting a job could be one reason for the disconnect. As a result, some job seekers today might find it tougher to land work than expected, given still somewhat plentiful job postings. Still, stabilization in the job opening rate will be an important milestone to look out for among those seeking a shift in market dynamics back in job seekers’ favor. 

Methodology

The job posting trend in chart 1 tracks an index of unique US job postings in a given month, and is not directly comparable to our official daily job posting tracker data. Other data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey are presented as seasonally adjusted 3-month averages. 

The number of job postings on Indeed.com, whether related to paid or unpaid job solicitations, is not indicative of potential revenue or earnings of Indeed, which comprises a significant percentage of the HR Technology segment of its parent company, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. Job posting numbers are provided for information purposes only and should not be viewed as an indicator of the performance of Indeed or Recruit. Please refer to the Recruit Holdings investor relations website and regulatory filings in Japan for more detailed information on revenue generation by Recruit’s HR Technology segment.