Economic uncertainty doesn’t just push the numbers in one direction. Canadian job growth surprised on the upside in June, at least temporarily breaking out of the funk that had prevailed since February. Part-time jobs led the way, but full-time roles also contributed, helping drive a solid rise in total hours worked. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked back down to 6.9%, still above where it ended the first quarter, but not spiraling out of control.
Gains were widespread across industries, with contributions coming from both private and public sectors and self-employment. Helping the headline number was manufacturing, which had slipped in four consecutive months before edging up in June, reversing May’s decline. The sector remains down 2.4% from the start of the year, but at least some employers are holding off on making dramatic movements amid the highly uncertain trade situation.
Despite the positive month, many of the labour market’s weaknesses were also readily apparent. The youth unemployment rate remained steady at 14.2%, as rough conditions have carried into the summer months. Long-term unemployment edged down in June but was notably higher than a year earlier, highlighting how it has gotten tougher for those out of work to find new employment.
In recent years, we’ve seen a two-track Canadian labour market: Those comfortably employed have enjoyed low layoffs and wage growth, but job seekers across a wide variety of circumstances are struggling. Reaction to trade uncertainty is the main focus in the near term, but the difficult market for job seekers lingers.
