This post is updated as of October 26, reflecting data through October 23. We will be regularly updating this data as we track how COVID-19 impacts the global labour market.
- As of October 23, total job postings on Indeed Canada stood 13% below last year’s trend, decent improvement from the week prior.
- New job postings, which can be volatile, jumped up to 12% above last year’s trend after being slightly lower than the 2019 path the week before.
- Overall, the recent upswing in new COVID-19 cases hasn’t derailed the ongoing rebound in overall job postings, with Manitoba the only province where the gap with last year hasn’t closed over the past month.
- That said, momentum has been weaker in certain pandemic-exposed sectors like food preparation and service, and sports, than the rest of the economy.
Total job postings on Indeed Canada rose compared to last year’s trend, as of Friday, October 23, standing 13% below 2019 levels, up from -15% the week prior. The closing of the gap reflected a steady level in this year’s trend combined with a dip in last year’s trend. So far, employer hiring appetite has held amidst a resurgence in COVID-19 cases, particularly compared to previous years, when we’ve seen postings start to slide from October through the end of the year.
Helping narrow the total postings gap was momentum in new postings, which jumped up to 12% above last year’s trend, after being somewhat below it the week prior. The improvement reflected a rebound in this year’s new posting trend after a temporary dip the week prior surrounding Thanksgiving. Given the typical volatility in new postings around public holidays, it’s tough to take much away from these trends. Overall, the recent pace that new jobs are being posted has been sufficient to keep total postings moving in the right direction, but an upswing in new COVID-19 cases puts this progress in jeopardy.
Manitoba the only province without progress over the past month
Rising COVID-19 cases west of the Maritimes, and new restrictions in provinces like Ontario and Quebec are a serious potential headwind to the rebound in job postings. However, like the nationwide trend, these developments haven’t made much of a dent to postings in central Canada. While Ontario and Quebec posting gaps relative to last year have narrowed a tad less than in Alberta and B.C, they’re still making progress. Rather, Manitoba, which has also seen an upswing in cases, is the only province where the rebound has stalled in recent weeks.
Food services struggling
Job postings continue to improve compared to last year across most sectors. That said, a few areas are showing weaker momentum. Included in this group are food preparation and service, as well as sports (which include fitness instructors), both vulnerable to a pickup in the pandemic, and resulting restrictions on activity.
Demand is stronger elsewhere. Postings in both nursing as well as loading and stocking are up in October, and now well above last year’s trend. Production and manufacturing jobs have also shown solid momentum, while construction is also running above last year’s trend.
Lastly, a range of sectors are following the economy-wide trend, showing improvement this month, though still yet to have fully recovered. Included in this group are several white collar and office-related areas like administrative assistance, IT operations and helpdesk, management, as well as installation and maintenance.
The public health situation and its economic spillovers continue to change on a daily basis. We’ll be regularly updating this data as conditions evolve.
To measure the trends in job postings, we calculated the 7-day moving average of the number of job postings on Indeed Canada. We index each day’s 7-day moving average to the start of February (Feb 1, 2020 = 100 for 2020 data, and so on).
We report how the trend in job postings this year differs from last year, in order to focus on the recent changes in labor market conditions due to COVID-19. For example: if job postings increased 30% from February 1, 2019, to April 10, 2019, but only 20% from February 1, 2020, to April 10, 2020, then the index would have risen from 100 to 130 in 2019 and 100 to 120 in 2020. The year-to-date trend in job postings would therefore be down 7.7% on April 10 (120 is 7.7% below 130) in 2020 relative to 2019.
For new postings, we calculate a similar metric but the underlying measure is the number of postings that have been on Indeed for seven days or less.
The number of job postings on Indeed.com, whether related to paid or unpaid job solicitations, is not indicative of potential revenue or earnings of Indeed, which comprises a significant percentage of the HR Technology segment of its parent company, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. Job posting numbers are provided for information purposes only and should not be viewed as an indicator of performance of Indeed or Recruit. Please refer to the Recruit Holdings investor relations website and regulatory filings in Japan for more detailed information on revenue generation by Recruit’s HR Technology segment.