This post is updated as of September 21, reflecting data through September 18. We will be regularly updating this data as we track how COVID-19 impacts the global labour market.
- As of September 18th, total job postings on Indeed Canada stood at 21% below last year’s trend, unchanged from the week prior.
- The gap in new postings, which can be volatile, widened slightly to 13% below 2019’s path, from -10% a week earlier. The arrival of fall, and an upswing in new COVID-19 cases leave us waiting to see if this pace can be maintained.
- Posting trends are now back to normal in sectors like construction, loading and stocking, and areas of health care.
Total job postings on Indeed Canada were flat compared to last year’s trend, as of Friday, September 18th, standing 21% below 2019 levels, unchanged from the week prior. It was the first week the total postings gap failed to close since early August, as both this and last year’s trends edged up similarly.
The plateau in the total postings gap came as new postings edged down compared to last year’s trend, from -10% to -13%. Weekly volatility notwithstanding, the new postings gap is currently where it stood nearly two months earlier on July 24th. So far, this pace has generally been sufficient to move the total postings gap, and by extension, the amount of opportunities available to Canadian job seekers, in the right direction. However, the arrival of fall, and an upswing in new COVID-19 cases leave us waiting to see if recent momentum can be maintained.
Strength varies considerably across sectors
With the rebound in job postings in its fifth month, hiring appetite in a few areas has actually returned to normal. Postings are back to their 2019 trends in construction, as well as loading and stocking, somewhat surprising, given that employment in both areas remained substantially below February levels according to the August Labour Force Survey. Less surprising is relatively strong demand for workers in health care, with postings in nursing as well as personal care and home health both near last year’s trends.
Meanwhile, like the economy-wide trend, there’s been improvement across a range of sectors in recent months, but far from sufficient to bring them back to last year’s levels. These include driving, banking and finance, retail, and management. Postings for these groups were still roughly 20% below last year’s trend in mid-September, despite showing progress closing their respective gaps since early August.
Lastly, several of the sectors where postings remain furthest from their 2019 trends are particularly hit by the pandemic, like hospitality and tourism, and food preparation and service. While postings in food services are in fact up significantly from their early pandemic lows, they still look quite weak compared to their much stronger pace last year. Also lagging behind are certain white-collar sectors like legal services and insurance. These latter areas often hire based on longer-term considerations, and therefore might be holding out on looking to add new workers until there’s greater certainty in the economic outlook.
The public health situation and its economic spillovers continue to change on a daily basis. We’ll be regularly updating this data as conditions evolve.
To measure the trends in job postings, we calculated the 7-day moving average of the number of job postings on Indeed Canada. We index each day’s 7-day moving average to the start of February (Feb 1, 2020 = 100 for 2020 data, and so on).
We report how the trend in job postings this year differs from last year, in order to focus on the recent changes in labor market conditions due to COVID-19. For example: if job postings increased 30% from February 1, 2019, to April 10, 2019, but only 20% from February 1, 2020, to April 10, 2020, then the index would have risen from 100 to 130 in 2019 and 100 to 120 in 2020. The year-to-date trend in job postings would therefore be down 7.7% on April 10 (120 is 7.7% below 130) in 2020 relative to 2019.
For new postings, we calculate a similar metric but the underlying measure is the number of postings that have been on Indeed for seven days or less.
The number of job postings on Indeed.com, whether related to paid or unpaid job solicitations, is not indicative of potential revenue or earnings of Indeed, which comprises a significant percentage of the HR Technology segment of its parent company, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. Job posting numbers are provided for information purposes only and should not be viewed as an indicator of performance of Indeed or Recruit. Please refer to the Recruit Holdings investor relations website and regulatory filings in Japan for more detailed information on revenue generation by Recruit’s HR Technology segment.