Canadian Job Postings Through July 24: Recovery Continues
New postings show further momentum.
This post is updated as of July 27, reflecting data through July 24. We will be regularly updating this data as we track how COVID-19 impacts the global labour market.
- As of July 24th, the trend in total job postings on Indeed Canada stood at 30% below last year’s pace, continuing their gradual, but incomplete rebound.
- The gap in new postings narrowed to 13% below 2019’s path from -17% a week earlier, continuing a bounce-back after momentum slowed at the start of July. Progress over the past month has been evident in nearly all provinces, except Quebec.
- Higher-wage roles generally fell less compared to last year’s trend than others earlier on in the crisis, while lower and mid-wage jobs have led the rebound since. For instance, among sectors with postings closer to last year’s trend than the economy-wide average, higher-wage nursing and software development are up less than others since early May, while lower-paying loading and stocking, and mid-paying construction have rebounded sharply.
- Meanwhile, opportunities remain weaker in areas of the economy hit hard by the crisis, such as food services, sports, aviation, and hospitality and tourism.
Total job postings on Indeed Canada edged up compared to last year’s trend last week, as of Friday, July 24th, standing 30% below 2019 levels. The gap was -31% the previous Friday, up from -49% in early-May. Despite trending in the right direction over the past two and a half months, a full recovery in job postings remains elusive.
The ongoing narrowing of the total postings gap reflects a more substantial rebound in new postings. The trend in new postings narrowed to 13% below last year’s level, compared to -17% the week prior, continuing recent progress after losing momentum early in July. The rate at which new jobs are being posted is currently sufficient to maintain the recovery in total job postings, helping improve the outlook for Canadian job seekers.
New postings picking up in most provinces
While no province has fully closed the gap in total postings compared to last year’s trend, new postings have in fact closed the gap in several smaller provinces. As of July 24, the trend in new postings was actually higher than 2019 levels in Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, and Saskatchewan, while Nova Scotia was just under. Meanwhile, Alberta, B.C., and Ontario have all made strides over the past month. In contrast, recent momentum has been a bit softer in Quebec.
Lower and mid-wage jobs leading the rebound, following steeper declines
Job postings in lower and mid-wage roles fell more than opportunities for high-wage positions earlier on in the crisis, but have seen greater rebounds since. As a result, as of July 24th, posting trends in all three tiers stand a similar distance from their 2019 levels, with mid and high-wage roles both down 29%, while lower wage postings are down 32%.
These patterns are evident looking at individual sectors where job posting trends are currently closer to last year’s levels than the broader economy. Higher wage areas like nursing and software development didn’t fall as much as others earlier on in the pandemic, and continue to have narrower gaps than elsewhere, despite relatively modest rebounds. Meanwhile, mid-wage construction jobs, as well as lower-wage positions in loading and stocking, have seen major rebounds, helping narrow the gap with their 2019 paths.
Similar contrasts are also evident among sectors with posting gaps comparable to the overall average. The gap in job postings in social science (which include psychologists and economists) as well as management, fell less than elsewhere, but have also seen more modest rebounds. At the same time, stronger bounce backs in driving and administrative assistance have brought gaps in postings in these sectors back near the economy-wide average.
Lastly, posting gaps remain relatively wide in several sectors hit particularly hard by the pandemic. These include sports (which covers jobs like fitness instructors and coaches), food preparation and service, still down substantially despite a more recent rebound, as well as hospitality and tourism, and aviation. The public health situation and its economic spillovers continue to change on a daily basis.
We’ll be regularly updating this data as conditions evolve. We also host the data behind the postings trends plots on Github as downloadable CSV files. Typically, it will be updated with the latest data one day after the respective Hiring Lab tracker is published.
To measure the trends in job postings, we calculated the 7-day moving average of the number of job postings on Indeed Canada. We index each day’s 7-day moving average to the start of February (Feb 1, 2020 = 100 for 2020 data, and so on).
We report how the trend in job postings this year differs from last year, in order to focus on the recent changes in labor market conditions due to COVID-19. For example: if job postings increased 30% from February 1, 2019, to April 10, 2019, but only 20% from February 1, 2020, to April 10, 2020, then the index would have risen from 100 to 130 in 2019 and 100 to 120 in 2020. The year-to-date trend in job postings would therefore be down 7.7% on April 10 (120 is 7.7% below 130) in 2020 relative to 2019.
For new postings, we calculate a similar metric but the underlying measure is the number of postings that have been on Indeed for seven days or less.
Information based on publicly available information on the Indeed Canada website (and other countries named in the post), limited to Canada, is not a projection of future events, and includes both paid and unpaid job solicitations.
Brendon Bernard is an Economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, focusing on the Canadian labour market. His research interests include analyzing how detailed trends in the job market fit in with broader developments in the Canadian economy. Brendon was previously an economist with Department of Finance Canada, where he focused on analyzing Canadian financial sector policy and the U.S. economy. He holds a Master’s in Economics from the Vancouver School of Economics at University of British Columbia, as well as a Bachelor of Arts (Honours) from Queen’s University.