Canadian Job Postings Through June 19: Gradually Rising
Momentum improves in Ontario.
This post is updated as of June 22, reflecting data through June 19. We will be regularly updating this data as we track how COVID-19 impacts the global labour market.
- As of June 19th, the trend in total job postings on Indeed Canada stood at 38% below last year’s pace. The gap stood at 41% the previous Friday, and 49% in early May.
- The gap in new postings narrowed further, to 24% below 2019’s path, from 29% a week earlier. Progress last week was led by improvement in Ontario, which had been lagging the national average.
- While subdued compared to last year, job opportunities have been more plentiful than average throughout the crisis in areas of healthcare, and more recently in sectors like construction, loading and stocking, as well as dentistry.
- On the flip-side, posting trends are faring relatively poorly in white-collar sectors like legal services and marketing, as well as in tourism and hospitality, and aviation.
Total job postings on Indeed Canada continued to rise last week, as of Friday, June 19th, standing 38% below last year’s trend. The gap was 41% the previous Friday, and 49% at the start of May. Overall hiring interest remains subdued compared to last year, but the pace of recovery in total postings is gradually increasing.
Pushing the total posting trend higher was continued momentum in new job postings, that have been on Indeed a week or less. The trend in new postings rose to 24% below last year’s level, up from -29% the week prior. The gap is now 29 percentage points narrower than it was in early May. Further progress in the new posting job trend will be key in driving total job postings higher, and for improving the outlook for Canadian job seekers. The good news is that things are moving in the right direction.
New postings pick up in Ontario after lagging
The gap in new postings compared to last year has narrowed substantially across the country. The shortfall continues to be less severe in provinces like New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, and Nova Scotia, as has generally been the case during the recovery. Meanwhile, after lagging national trends since early May, new job postings in Ontario perked up last week, its gap compared to last year to narrowing to less than the Canada-wide average. New postings remain a bit further from last year’s path in Quebec, primarily reflecting a stronger 2019, rather than weaker momentum than other provinces.
Prospects brighter for those seeking jobs in healthcare, construction, and warehousing
In recent weeks we’ve highlighted sectors where new job postings are showing greater momentum. However, it’s also important to keep tabs on trends in total job postings, which signify where opportunities are for job seekers today.
With the overall trend in job posting still down 38% from last year’s level, job posting trends remain subdued across the economy. However some sectors are faring better than others. Throughout the crisis, job postings have held up relatively well in several areas of the healthcare field, including nursing and personal care and home health, which includes personal support workers. However the rebound in total posting trend has also brought back opportunities elsewhere, including in loading and stocking, which includes postings for warehouse workers, as well as in construction. Especially notable has been a return in job opportunities in the dental sector — which includes dentists, as well as dental hygienists and assistants — bouncing back after being one of the hardest-hit areas of the economy earlier in the crisis.
A wide range of sectors fall in the middle of the pack, with total posting trends compared to last year resembling the overall average. Including in this group, are beauty and wellness, which includes massage therapists and hair stylists, cleaning and sanitation, installation and maintenance, as well as driving, which includes truck and delivery drivers.
Lastly, hiring appetite remains quite soft across several areas of the economy. Some are white collar sectors, like legal services, as well as marketing, while others are sectors that face particular challenges in a time of social distancing, like hospitality and tourism, and aviation.
The public health situation and its economic spillovers continue to change on a daily basis. We’ll be regularly updating this data as conditions evolve.
To measure the trends in job postings, we calculated the 7-day moving average of the number of job postings on Indeed Canada. We index each day’s 7-day moving average to the start of February (Feb 1, 2020 = 100 for 2020 data, and so on).
We report how the trend in job postings this year differs from last year, in order to focus on the recent changes in labor market conditions due to COVID-19. For example: if job postings increased 30% from February 1, 2019, to April 10, 2019, but only 20% from February 1, 2020, to April 10, 2020, then the index would have risen from 100 to 130 in 2019 and 100 to 120 in 2020. The year-to-date trend in job postings would therefore be down 7.7% on April 10 (120 is 7.7% below 130) in 2020 relative to 2019.
For new postings, we calculate a similar metric but the underlying measure is the number of postings that have been on Indeed for seven days or less.
Information based on publicly available information on the Indeed Canada website (and other countries named in the post), limited to Canada, is not a projection of future events, and includes both paid and unpaid job solicitations.
Brendon Bernard is an Economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, focusing on the Canadian labour market. His research interests include analyzing how detailed trends in the job market fit in with broader developments in the Canadian economy. Brendon was previously an economist with Department of Finance Canada, where he focused on analyzing Canadian financial sector policy and the U.S. economy. He holds a Master’s in Economics from the Vancouver School of Economics at University of British Columbia, as well as a Bachelor of Arts (Honours) from Queen’s University.