Key points:

  • Seasonal hiring is outpacing last year’s weak levels, but year-round postings continue to soften as employers lean on flexible staffing amid economic uncertainty.
  • The share of driving postings marked as seasonal has climbed from about 1% last November to 2.6% this year.

Seasonal hiring brushed off a slow start and accelerated in October, with the level of seasonal job postings rising to 11% above 2024 levels as of November 14. But the surge in demand may ring a bit hollow — last year was the weakest seasonal hiring year in recent Indeed data, and this year’s demand still pales in comparison to stronger years recorded in 2020, 2021, and 2022. The strength relative to last year suggests that businesses are feeling relatively confident about consumer spending as they head into the holiday season. But there are also signs of skepticism and a reluctance to hire for the longer term that are lurking just below the surface.

Line chart titled “Seasonal job postings peaked above last year but remain below 2021-2022.” The chart displays seasonal job postings from 2019 to 2025, with each year represented by a distinct color. Postings are 11% higher this year than last, but still about 13% below 2021 and 2022 levels.
Line chart titled “Seasonal job postings peaked above last year but remain below 2021-2022.” The chart displays seasonal job postings from 2019 to 2025, with each year represented by a distinct color. Postings are 11% higher this year than last, but still about 13% below 2021 and 2022 levels.

A handful of sectors drove the spike in seasonal demand, and retail, typically the backbone of holiday hiring, was not one of them. As of mid-November, seasonal retail postings were essentially flat compared to last year, up just 1%. And seasonal sales roles were actually down 10% year-over-year. The seasonal hiring surge is instead coming from logistics-related roles — driving and loading & stocking jobs were up 153% and 49%, respectively, from their mid-November 2024 levels. While some of this shift is likely attributable to the continued growth of e-commerce, some of it also appears to be driven by a focus on flexible staffing in an uncertain economic environment heading into 2026. 

The Indeed Job Postings Index for the driving sector was down 4.3% year-on-year in mid-November, and the retail sector was down by 12.1%. Loading & stocking jobs have fared slightly better, but are still only up by 0.3% compared to last year. Seasonal hiring strength in driving and warehouse jobs, paired with weakness in overall postings, suggests employers are prioritizing short-term flexibility over long-term workforce expansion. Last November, only about 1% of all driving job postings were seasonal; this year, that share has risen to 2.6%. In short, employers don’t want to be understaffed during their busiest time of year, especially for logistics-heavy roles. Still, they appear to be cautious about long-term hiring commitments in an uncertain environment.