Key points:

  • A real-time view of job search activity by federal workers shows increased job application activity during the government shutdown period, but does not yet reflect reductions in force (RIFs) announced on October 10.
  • Future updates to the analysis will help determine whether the ongoing shutdown and RIFs have any effect on the proportion of federal employees applying for jobs.

After moderating earlier this year, job seeking amongst federal workers is increasing yet again. Real-time data from Indeed shows that federal workers are still actively looking and applying for jobs at a rate that has been steadily increasing since mid-September. As of October 9, applications started by federal workers measured 157% above their January 1 levels and 132% above the level observed on October 9, 2024.

Line chart titled “Federal worker job search intensity remains elevated” covers data from October 2024 to October 2025. The graph has a vertical axis ranging from 100 to 250, representing an index that measures the number of applications started by job seekers with federal experience in a given day. 

A look at the same data for the last 30 days reveals a more detailed view of federal worker applications over the past month. A larger number of federal workers have applied for jobs since the federal government shutdown began on October 1, compared to the immediately preceding weeks. Interestingly, the rate of federal government applications fell a bit on October 8 and 9, immediately prior to the reductions in force announced on October 10. Our real-time measure will allow us to update these data on a daily basis, revealing what, if any, impact the RIFs will have on the number of federal workers applying for jobs.

Bar graph showing the number of federal workers actively applying for jobs, with the gray bars indicating pre-government shutdown time periods compared to the day of and following the shutdown announcement.

Methodology

On data privacy: To protect workers’ personal information, all datasets are stripped of identifying information, including names and addresses. Results are only reported in an aggregated format. Analysis and data review are also performed to ensure that data points cannot be tied back to individuals.

For this analysis, we utilized Indeed’s pool of hundreds of millions of job seeker profiles to identify active job seekers who listed the federal government as their current or (newly) former employer. United States Postal Service workers were excluded to allow for comparisons with Office of Personnel Management and Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 

Application data is based on the number of workers who started an application on Indeed, regardless of whether they saw the process through, smoothed using a 7-day moving average. 

The number of job postings on Indeed.com, whether related to paid or unpaid job solicitations, is not indicative of potential revenue or earnings of Indeed, which comprises a significant percentage of the HR Technology segment of its parent company, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. Job posting numbers are provided for information purposes only and should not be viewed as an indicator of performance of Indeed or Recruit. Please refer to the Recruit Holdings investor relations website and regulatory filings in Japan for more detailed information on revenue generation by Recruit’s HR Technology segment.