Key points:

  • Applications from workers at federal agencies under DOGE review surged 150% between January and April, then fell 4% in May.
  • Compared to a year ago, federal workers are currently much more likely to apply for knowledge-work jobs. 
  • Postings by private-sector employers with large government contracts have pulled back 15% since January 20.

Job search intensity among federal workers softened in May following a months-long surge that began in February. The number of applications started by government workers in agencies under review by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) surged by 150% between January and April, before falling by 4% in May. The recent softening suggests federal workers’ job search intensity and urgency may be fading somewhat, though activity remains very elevated compared to historic norms. The change in trend is a potential sign that the effects of DOGE’s early efforts to cut federal headcount may have peaked.  

Federal workers’ urgency to find new jobs is fading

Federal workers’ (excluding postal service employees) job application activity on Indeed has mirrored the broader labor market’s fluctuations in recent years. Application starts rose through mid-2022, then steadily decreased before leveling off towards the end of 2024. But in early 2025, federal workers began job hunting with unprecedented urgency in the face of DOGE-driven efforts to reduce government headcount. A similar pattern is visible among all federal workers (not just those at agencies under direct DOGE scrutiny), but to a lesser degree, with applications rising by 56% from January to May.

Line chart titled “Job search intensity among federal workers has softened” covers data from January 2022 to May 2025. The graph has a vertical axis ranging from 100 to 250, representing an index that measures the number of applications started by job seekers with federal experience in each month. Two lines are visible on the graph. One line shows that applications have picked up for all federal workers (excluding postal workers), but have skyrocketed for workers in agencies under DOGE review. 
Line chart titled “Job search intensity among federal workers has softened” covers data from January 2022 to May 2025. The graph has a vertical axis ranging from 100 to 250, representing an index that measures the number of applications started by job seekers with federal experience in each month. Two lines are visible on the graph. One line shows that applications have picked up for all federal workers (excluding postal workers), but have skyrocketed for workers in agencies under DOGE review. 

There are several potential explanations for the shifting dynamics. The number of workers actively looking for jobs can and does naturally fluctuate higher or lower from month to month. Or, perhaps, the number of workers searching for jobs is staying fairly consistent, but the number of applications they start may be falling. The drop in May appears to be driven by a mix of both.

Perhaps some pullback in federal workers’ urgency is attributable to the psychological shift resulting from less media attention being directed towards DOGE activities in recent weeks, especially in the aftermath of Elon Musk’s departure as leader. Workers may also be taking advantage of the upcoming summer months to take a momentary breather before resuming their job search, particularly those with a deferred resignation. Or, more optimistically, it may be that some of these federal workers are beginning to find employment elsewhere and no longer need to job hunt. Indeed’s profile data shows that less than 2% of federal workers with an active search have changed jobs so far this year. But that data should perhaps be read as a lower limit, and the actual number could be much higher, since many workers will typically only update their profiles/resumes when they begin a new job search, and not necessarily after finding a job. 

Federal workers are increasingly applying for knowledge-work jobs

Administrative assistance roles received the highest share of applications from federal workers from February to May of this year, at 11.9% of all applications started by government employees. Management and customer service jobs followed, responsible for 8.6% and 5.8% of applications, respectively. These categories also received the highest shares of applications from federal workers in 2024, partly because they account for a large share of job postings overall. Still, the focus of federal applications has shifted notably towards knowledge work roles, including accounting and human resources, in 2025. In the last year, the share of applications from federal workers going to administrative assistance and customer services roles fell by 0.4 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively, while the share going to accounting jobs has grown by 2.0 percentage points. 

A table titled “Federal workers are applying to more white-collar jobs this year” shows which occupational categories have had the largest increase in the share of applications received since last year. Accounting topped the list with a 2.0 percentage point jump, followed by human resources and management at 0.9 p.p. increases, respectively. 
A table titled “Federal workers are applying to more white-collar jobs this year” shows which occupational categories have had the largest increase in the share of applications received since last year. Accounting topped the list with a 2.0 percentage point jump, followed by human resources and management at 0.9 p.p. increases, respectively. 

This uptick in applications for knowledge-work roles is not necessarily the result of workers becoming more interested in those types of jobs. Instead, it is likely due to a change in the types of workers who are job hunting this year. Previous Hiring Lab research shows that the share of actively searching federal workers with a bachelor’s degree or above rose from 56% in 2024 to 68% in early 2025. For employers, this influx of educated workers may serve as a good opportunity to attract these specialized job seekers. 

Cuts to federal spending are showing up in job postings for employers that receive large government contracts

Official economic data has shown little sign that DOGE’s actions are negatively impacting the broader labor market so far. But Indeed data show that recent policy changes and federal spending cuts are being reflected through weaker-than-average job posting activity for roles in Washington, D.C., and among scientific research and development roles that rely on federal funding. Similarly, job postings for the 25 employers with the most dollars received from government contracts have also experienced a notable pullback, falling by 15% since January 20. For reference, postings for all other roles have only dropped by 0.6% over the same period. 

Line chart titled “Postings for employers with large federal contracts spiked after the pandemic but have cooled dramatically since.” The graph has a vertical axis ranging from 50 to 200, with two lines that represent indices of Indeed job postings for employers with the 25 highest amounts of dollars received from federal contracts compared to all other jobs. So far in 2025, employer demand has been more pronounced among large employers with notable government contracts and funding.
Line chart titled “Postings for employers with large federal contracts spiked after the pandemic but have cooled dramatically since.” The graph has a vertical axis ranging from 50 to 200, with two lines that represent indices of Indeed job postings for employers with the 25 highest amounts of dollars received from federal contracts compared to all other jobs. So far in 2025, employer demand has been more pronounced among large employers with notable government contracts and funding.

While the recent downturn in those postings is minor in the broader context of the last five years, it is concerning because it is happening in a very different labor market. The dramatic cooling experienced in the broader labor market between mid-2022 and late-2023 was largely the result of rebalancing after a period of overheating post-pandemic. Today’s labor market, by contrast, appears resilient but is rapidly approaching a tipping point where further declines in job openings are increasingly likely to translate into weaker job gains and rising unemployment. A cooler labor market is already negatively impacting young workers and recent graduates struggling to find jobs amid muted hiring activity. The decline in top contractor job postings also negatively impacts federal workers actively seeking new roles. These workers often possess valuable knowledge of government operations and the work performed by these companies, making them potentially strong candidates.

Conclusion

While May’s dip in job applications suggests less urgency among federal workers in their job hunt, the broader implications remain uncertain. Tens of thousands of government employees have reportedly taken a deferred resignation, and it is unclear whether the labor market can absorb this influx of specialized, highly educated workers, particularly when demand for those workers is relatively muted. Beyond immediate labor market impacts, broadly divesting from public goods and services will likely have uncertain longer-term implications for the many institutions and functions that rely on government stability and investment.

Methodology

On data privacy: To protect workers’ personal information, all datasets are stripped of identifying information, including names and addresses. Results are only reported in an aggregated format. Analysis and data review are also performed to ensure that data points cannot be tied back to individuals.

For this analysis, we utilized Indeed’s pool of hundreds of millions of job seeker profiles to identify active job seekers who listed the federal government as their current or (newly) former employer. We then grouped them by their highest listed education level, skills, job titles, and current/former department or agency. United States Postal Service workers were excluded to allow for comparisons with Office of Personnel Management and Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 

Application data is based on the number of workers who started an application on Indeed, regardless of whether they saw the process through. Time series data are seasonally adjusted to provide a clearer look at the trends. 

Data on Indeed job postings are an index of the number of job postings on a given day, using a seven-day trailing average. February 1, 2020, is our pre-pandemic baseline, so the index is set to 100 on that day. Employers with the largest amount of government funding were determined using the  sams.gov Top 100 Contractor report for fiscal year 2023. 

The number of job postings on Indeed.com, whether related to paid or unpaid job solicitations, is not indicative of potential revenue or earnings of Indeed, which comprises a significant percentage of the HR Technology segment of its parent company, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. Job posting numbers are provided for information purposes only and should not be viewed as an indicator of performance of Indeed or Recruit. Please refer to the Recruit Holdings investor relations website and regulatory filings in Japan for more detailed information on revenue generation by Recruit’s HR Technology segment.