In many ways, 2024 was a surprisingly strong year for global labor markets. While markets in most developed economies cooled last year, they mostly did so from positions of strength, generally avoiding the large-scale weakening expected by many observers at the start of the year. But at the start of 2025, any cushion for further slowdowns may be depleted, and further deterioration may begin to lead to higher unemployment and more volatility.

Still, the outlook in some nations (notably the United States) is rosier than in others. The US economy continues to grow at a healthy clip and is expected to stick a rare economic soft landing — in which the job market cools and inflation declines without widespread job losses. But some European countries remain mired in malaise, suffering from flagging labor demand, geopolitical volatility, and limited innovation and adoption of new AI technologies.

Indeed Hiring Lab economists, armed with the most comprehensive and timely labor market data from Indeed, have the pulse of what’s happening in labor markets worldwide. We’ve compiled some of their top insights and expectations for a host of critical countries below, and encourage you to dive deeper into each country’s unique trends by clicking through to the full outlook posts. We will add to this post as outlook reports for more countries are published in the coming weeks.

United States

  • The US economy is solid, but there’s little room for continued softening in 2025.
  • Hires and quits are near decade-lows, and a pickup in both would be a sign of confidence among employers and job seekers.
  • GenAI adoption is growing, but for a strong economic impact, it needs more widespread adoption among a variety of industries — not just tech.
Line graph titled “Inflation is trending down while posted wage growth stabilizes” with a vertical axis from 2.5% to 7.5%. The graph covers from January 2019 to October 2024. It shows posted wage growth with the blue line and inflation with the pink line. Posted wages are now outpacing inflation.
Line graph titled “Inflation is trending down while posted wage growth stabilizes” with a vertical axis from 2.5% to 7.5%. The graph covers from January 2019 to October 2024. It shows posted wage growth with the blue line and inflation with the pink line. Posted wages are now outpacing inflation.

Canada

  • Something will have to change for the Canadian labor market to avoid a year of disappointment.
  • Stronger employer demand is crucial for a labor market turnaround.
  • Immigration, and especially emigration, are key policy wildcards for the labor market.
  • Wage growth could cool after a strong 2024.
  • Generative AI is changing tech jobs but rarely mentioned in other job postings.
Two-panel line graph titled “The steadily weakening Canadian labour market.” The left panel shows employment and population growth between June 2022 and November 2024, with the gap between the two trends widening over the past year. The right panel shows the unemployment rate between 2015 and November 2024, with the rate rising 1.0 percentage point from a year earlier, to 6.8%.
Two-panel line graph titled “The steadily weakening Canadian labour market.” The left panel shows employment and population growth between June 2022 and November 2024, with the gap between the two trends widening over the past year. The right panel shows the unemployment rate between 2015 and November 2024, with the rate rising 1.0 percentage point from a year earlier, to 6.8%.

United Kingdom

  • The UK economy performed a little better than expected this year, but 2025 could be challenging.
  • Job postings fell in almost all occupational categories in 2024.
  • Zero-hours contracts have been gradually rising ahead of anticipated policy changes.
  • The popularity of remote and hybrid work will persist, despite employers’ return-to-office pushes.
Line chart titled “UK job postings are trending lower than in peer economies” shows the Indeed Job Postings Index for leading global economies. UK job postings are trending lower than in Australia, Canada, France, Germany and the US. 
Line chart titled “UK job postings are trending lower than in peer economies” shows the Indeed Job Postings Index for leading global economies. UK job postings are trending lower than in Australia, Canada, France, Germany and the US. 

France

  • After a year marked by a slowdown in activity and political instability, public officials will have to make structural choices in 2025 to maintain the long-term standard of living.
  • Wage and purchasing power gains are expected to remain limited while the French unemployment rate will remain close to its current levels.
  • The war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, and trade tensions will generate strong uncertainties for sectors exposed to trade and commodity prices.
Line chart showing the quarterly evolution between 2007 and 2024 of net job creations, adjusted for seasonal variations. The data comes from INSEE.
Line chart showing the quarterly evolution between 2007 and 2024 of net job creations, adjusted for seasonal variations. The data comes from INSEE.

Germany

  • The competition for talent is cooling down noticeably, and a decline in worker demand is particularly affecting top-paying jobs.
  • International interest in jobs in Germany is leveling off, which may construct labor supply.
  • AI remains a niche topic in Germany.
The line chart "Advertised wages follow consumer prices" shows consumer prices since 2021, which peaked at the end of 2022 and fell almost continuously until the end of 2023. Over the same period, agreed monthly earnings grew only slowly. Since the beginning of 2024, they have increased more than consumer prices and the Indeed Wage Tracker.
The line chart “Advertised wages follow consumer prices” shows consumer prices since 2021, which peaked at the end of 2022 and fell almost continuously until the end of 2023. Over the same period, agreed monthly earnings grew only slowly. Since the beginning of 2024, they have increased more than consumer prices and the Indeed Wage Tracker.

Australia

  • Australia’s labor market remains tight by historical standards, though imbalances between labor demand and supply eased somewhat throughout 2024.
  • Employment gains are increasingly driven by government and non-market industries, reflecting a challenging economic environment for private businesses. 
  • Australian labor productivity continued to decline in 2024, with the workforce now only as productive as it was seven years ago. 
  • Pay transparency continues to rise across Australia, with 37% of job postings featuring pay information by the end of 2024. 
Line graph titled “Australian wage growth and inflation.” With a vertical axis ranging from -2 to 8%, Australian wage growth was slightly higher than inflation throughout 2024, following a lengthy period of elevated inflation.
Line graph titled “Australian wage growth and inflation.” With a vertical axis ranging from -2 to 8%, Australian wage growth was slightly higher than inflation throughout 2024, following a lengthy period of elevated inflation. 

Japan

  • GDP is expected to rise slightly due to private demand. The current wage growth rate is showing a sustained upward trend, and real wage growth is finally expected to turn positive.
  • Wage trends remain important precisely because labor supply and demand are functioning properly.
  • Information regarding salary increases and bonuses in job postings is becoming more transparent regardless of employment type.
  • The key to further wage increases is to increase supply capacity, which will provide the necessary funds. To achieve this, active investment in growth industries such as AI will also be necessary.
Real GDP growth rate and contribution of each demand item from 2019 to 2025. Actual data up to 2023 is from the Cabinet Office's "National Economic Accounts," and future estimates from 2024 onwards are fromCabinet Office document "Economic outlook and necessary policy responses"(November 1, 2024).
Real GDP growth rate and contribution of each demand item from 2019 to 2025. Actual data up to 2023 is from the Cabinet Office’s “National Economic Accounts,” and future estimates from 2024 onwards are from Cabinet Office document “Economic outlook and necessary policy responses”(November 1, 2024).