The Federal Reserve’s half-point cut in the Federal Funds Rates signals both the end of its fight against high inflation and a renewed focus on supporting the labor market. Chair Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole last month previewed this shift toward protecting the labor market, and those words are now turning into action. Powell and other policymakers openly acknowledged the risks to the labor market are growing, with 12 participants indicating unemployment risks were increasing, up from only 4 in June. The median projection for the unemployment rate for the end of this year and 2025 increased to 4.4%, from 4% and 4.2% earlier this year, signaling the Fed expects the labor market to soften further. With inflation trending toward 2 percent, a smooth landing can happen if actual data comes in as projected. But whether or not the pilot lands the plane skillfully depends on whether the pullback in interest rates is large enough and quick enough. The descent is going well so far, but the plane is not yet on the ground.
September 2024 FOMC Reaction: A Shift To Supporting the Labor Market
September 18, 2024