Key points:

  • Job postings have continued to gradually decline, having seen a lacklustre seasonal rebound in January.
  • Wage growth has fallen back as the labour market has loosened further.
  • Redundancy notifications have edged higher, but still few signs of impending widespread job losses.

Our Labour Market Updates examine important trends using Indeed and other labour market data. Our European Labour Market Overview chartbook provides a more comprehensive view of the European labour market. Other data, including the Indeed Wage Tracker, is regularly updated and can be accessed on our data portal.

The UK labour market continues to weaken amid persistently soft hiring demand. UK job postings have continued to gradually fall, slipping a further 1.9% in the month to 13 February and standing around 13% below last year. The headline job postings index now sits around 27% below its pre-pandemic baseline, remaining well below equivalent metrics for peer economies globally. 

Line chart titled “UK job postings continue to lag” shows the Indeed Job Postings Index for the UK, Australia, Canada, France, Germany and the US from 2020 to 2026. UK job postings remain well below their pre-pandemic baseline, in contrast to peer economies. 
Line chart titled “UK job postings continue to lag” shows the Indeed Job Postings Index for the UK, Australia, Canada, France, Germany and the US from 2020 to 2026. UK job postings remain well below their pre-pandemic baseline, in contrast to peer economies. 

Weakness in low-paid occupations continues to mark out the UK versus peers. Whereas low-wage postings in the UK are trending below high-wage ones, they remain substantially stronger in countries like Germany and France. Lower-paid jobs in the UK have been hit harder by last year’s tax rises and minimum wage increases, which have raised employment costs to a greater degree proportionally than higher-wage ones. 

Line chart titled “UK low-wage postings are trending weaker than high-wage ones” shows the Indeed Job Postings Index for the UK, Germany and France split by wage tiers from 2020 to 2026. UK low-wage jobs are trending weaker than high-wage ones, in contrast to Germany and France, where they have held up substantially better. 
Line chart titled “UK low-wage postings are trending weaker than high-wage ones” shows the Indeed Job Postings Index for the UK, Germany and France split by wage tiers from 2020 to 2026. UK low-wage jobs are trending weaker than high-wage ones, in contrast to Germany and France, where they have held up substantially better. 

Spotlight: Subdued January job postings rebound 

UK job postings typically dip over the holiday season, and then build momentum during January as recruitment plans kick into gear. But this January’s seasonal rebound was sluggish, with postings failing to reach their early-December average, remaining 1.6% down on that level at month-end. The muted start to the year underlines the mood of caution around the UK job market, amid modest economic growth projections and higher employment costs in the wake of last year’s tax increases and minimum wage rises. 

Line chart titled “UK Job Postings in December and January” shows the non-seasonally adjusted level of job postings, indexed to the 1-15 December average, for the past six years. This year’s January rebound was sluggish, remaining 1.6% down on the early-December level by the end of January 2026. 
Line chart titled “UK Job Postings in December and January” shows the non-seasonally adjusted level of job postings, indexed to the 1-15 December average, for the past six years. This year’s January rebound was sluggish, remaining 1.6% down on the early-December level by the end of January 2026. 

Searches and applications saw slightly softer rebounds than last year 

The seasonal rebound in jobseeker searches, meanwhile, followed a similar trajectory to last year, though lost some steam towards the end of January, finishing around 1.7% down versus a year previously. 

Applications were a little sluggish, trailing the previous year’s trend throughout January and finishing the month 1.3% lower year-on-year. Perhaps a perceived shortage of good opportunities played a part in jobseekers’ lack of gusto at the beginning of 2026. 

Line chart titled “UK postings, searches and started applications” shows the indexed level of postings, searches and apply starts between 1 December 2025 and 31 January 2026. All three saw softer January rebounds than last year. 
Line chart titled “UK postings, searches and started applications” shows the indexed level of postings, searches and apply starts between 1 December 2025 and 31 January 2026. All three saw softer January rebounds than last year. 

Strongest and weakest job postings rebounds

Several categories opened the year with a spring in their step, led by human resources, which saw a 7.9% rise in postings versus baseline. Management, marketing, software development and legal also saw among the strongest January job postings rebounds.

Table titled “Change in job postings of best-performing sectors in UK” shows the percentage change in job postings between the average of 1-15 December 2025 and 31 January 2026. Human resources saw the biggest rise at 7.9%. 
Table titled “Change in job postings of best-performing sectors in UK” shows the percentage change in job postings between the average of 1-15 December 2025 and 31 January 2026. Human resources saw the biggest rise at 7.9%. 

Cleaning, logistics, social care and childcare occupations were among those that had a soft start to the year. Loading & stocking postings were furthest down on baseline (-27%). Though that category usually sees a seasonal drop-off after the holiday period, this year’s decline was larger than in prior years. 

Table titled “Change in job postings of worst-performing sectors in UK” shows the percentage change in job postings between the average of 1-15 December 2025 and 31 January 2026. Loading & stocking saw the biggest fall at 27%. 
Table titled “Change in job postings of worst-performing sectors in UK” shows the percentage change in job postings between the average of 1-15 December 2025 and 31 January 2026. Loading & stocking saw the biggest fall at 27%. 

Wage growth has moderated

The softer labour market has resulted in easing pay pressures. The Indeed Wage Tracker shows that annual posted wage growth was 4.1% in January, unchanged from the rate in December. That’s well down from the elevated levels seen throughout much of the post-pandemic period, though still above the 3% range the Bank of England considers consistent with its 2% inflation target. 

Official data also shows easing pay pressures, with annual growth of regular pay slowing to 4.2% in the final quarter of last year and private-sector wage growth (closely watched by Bank rate setters) easing to 3.4%. 

Line chart titled “UK posted wage growth is easing” shows the annual growth rate in posted wages from 2019 to 2026 for the UK, US and euro area. UK posted wage growth was 4.1% year-on-year in January, well down from peaks but remaining above that seen in the US and euro area. 
Line chart titled “UK posted wage growth is easing” shows the annual growth rate in posted wages from 2019 to 2026 for the UK, US and euro area. UK posted wage growth was 4.1% year-on-year in January, well down from peaks but remaining above that seen in the US and euro area. 

The labour market continues to loosen

The unemployment rate continues to edge higher, reaching 5.2% in the three months to December – the highest in nearly five years. Though vacancies have been relatively stable in recent months, rising joblessness has continued to loosen the labour market. At 2.6, the ratio of unemployed people to vacancies is at its highest since early 2021 when the labour market was recovering from the initial COVID shock. 

Line chart titled “UK labour market continues to gradually loosen” shows the ratio of unemployed people to vacancies from 2001 to 2025. The ratio has continued to rise in recent months and now stands at 2.6. 
Line chart titled “UK labour market continues to gradually loosen” shows the ratio of unemployed people to vacancies from 2001 to 2025. The ratio has continued to rise in recent months and now stands at 2.6. 

Redundancy notifications have crept up, though remain modest 

Though there remain few signs of impending widespread job losses, redundancy notifications have been nudging higher. The number of potential redundancies averaged around 27,000 in the three months to January. That’s a little lower than the series average since comparable data started in 2020, but higher than the average of around 21,000 since 2021, excluding the early-COVID spike. 

Line chart titled “UK redundancy notifications remain low” shows the number of potential redundancies notified to the government from 2020 to 2026. Redundancy notifications remain modest, despite rising slightly in recent months. 
Line chart titled “UK redundancy notifications remain low” shows the number of potential redundancies notified to the government from 2020 to 2026. Redundancy notifications remain modest, despite rising slightly in recent months. 

Conclusion

The soft start to 2026 continues a pattern that has characterised the UK labour market for some time: persistently weak hiring demand and a gradually loosening market. But there remains little sign of that turning into a more serious shakeout, in the immediate term at least. With employers grappling with higher costs and modest expectations for the UK economy, prospects for the labour market soon pulling out of its funk look slim. If policymakers respond by cutting interest rates in the coming months, that may help shore up confidence in the economy’s prospects and hopefully prevent the weakness from turning into a more protracted jobs downturn. 

Hiring Lab Data

Job postings data is available on our Data Portal. We also host the underlying job-postings chart data on GitHub as downloadable CSV files. Typically, it will be updated with the latest data one day after this blog post is published. 

Methodology

Data on seasonally adjusted Indeed job postings is an index of the number of seasonally adjusted job postings on a given day, using a seven-day trailing average. Feb. 1, 2020, is our pre-pandemic baseline, so the index is set to 100 on that day. 

To calculate the average rate of wage growth, we follow an approach similar to the Atlanta Fed US Wage Growth Tracker, but we track jobs, not individuals. We begin by calculating the median posted wage for each country, month, job title, region and salary type (hourly, monthly or annual). Within each country, we then calculate year-on-year wage growth for each job title-region-salary type combination, generating a monthly distribution. Our monthly measure of wage growth for the country is the median of that distribution. 

The number of job postings on Indeed.com, whether related to paid or unpaid job solicitations, is not indicative of potential revenue or earnings of Indeed, which comprises a significant percentage of the HR Technology segment of its parent company, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. Job posting numbers are provided for information purposes only and should not be viewed as an indicator of performance of Indeed or Recruit. Please refer to the Recruit Holdings investor relations website and regulatory filings in Japan for more detailed information on revenue generation by Recruit’s HR Technology segment.