Key points:

  • Posted wage growth picked up to 5.9% year-on-year in July, its highest in six months.
  • Labour demand remains weak, with job postings languishing 23% below their pre-pandemic baseline (albeit having remained stable in recent months).
  • London and the South East continue to see the softest job posting trends at the regional level.

Our Labour Market Updates examine important trends using Indeed and other labour market data. Our European Labour Market Overview chartbook provides a more comprehensive view of the European labour market. Other data, including the Indeed Wage Tracker, are regularly updated and can be accessed on our data portal.

The UK labour market continues to show weak hiring demand but robust wage growth, underlining the challenge facing the Bank of England as it grapples with concerns over ‘stagflation’. Though it lowered borrowing costs in August after a tight vote, the BoE continues to face a tricky balancing act between supporting a faltering economy and combating above-target inflation. 

The latest figures showed consumer prices rising at an annual rate of 3.8% in July, almost double the Bank’s 2% target. Persistently high wage growth adds to concerns that bringing inflation down (and keeping it down) may prove difficult. 

Spotlight: Posted wage growth picked up in July 

The Indeed Wage Tracker showed that annual growth in UK posted wages has gathered momentum recently, rising from 5.5% in June to 5.9% in July —  its highest rate since January. On a three-month basis, wage growth is running at 5.6%. 

Line chart titled “UK posted wage growth remains robust” shows annual growth in posted wages in the UK, US and euro area. UK posted wage growth ticked up to 5.6% year-on-year in July, remaining well above that seen in the euro area (2.5%) and the US (2.7%). 
Line chart titled “UK posted wage growth remains robust” shows annual growth in posted wages in the UK, US and euro area. UK posted wage growth ticked up to 5.6% year-on-year in July, remaining well above that seen in the euro area (2.5%) and the US (2.7%). 

The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data showed annual growth in regular pay held steady at 5.0% in the three months to June, tied for its lowest level in three years. But the signal from posted wage growth suggests the path toward slower wage growth — a necessary step the Bank needs to see before it can work towards bringing borrowing costs down — may not be so straightforward in coming months. 

The Indeed Wage Tracker shows that several categories continued to see strong annual wage growth in the three months to July. Dental had the highest wage growth (7.0%), ahead of loading & stocking and beauty & wellness (both 6.6%). Conversely, the slowest annual wage growth was seen in software development (1.1%), followed by project management (2.4%). 

Table titled “Several occupations continue to see strong wage growth” shows the annual wage growth for occupational categories in the three months to July. Dental saw the highest wage growth at 7.0%. 

UK job postings remain stable at subdued levels 

UK hiring demand has remained weak in recent months but hasn’t shown signs of further deterioration. As of 15 August, postings were 23% below their 1 February 2020, pre-pandemic baseline — broadly where they have been since late April after a tax hike on employers took effect, and an outlier among peer economies in which postings generally remain above pre-pandemic levels. UK job postings have declined 15% over the past year. 

Line chart titled “UK job postings remain well below pre-pandemic levels” shows the Indeed Job Postings Index from 1 February 2020 to 15 August 2025 in the UK, US, France, Germany, Italy and Ireland. The UK is the only country where job postings are below their pre-pandemic baseline. 
Line chart titled “UK job postings remain well below pre-pandemic levels” shows the Indeed Job Postings Index from 1 February 2020 to 15 August 2025 in the UK, US, France, Germany, Italy and Ireland. The UK is the only country where job postings are below their pre-pandemic baseline. 

There continues to be variation in sectoral strength. Postings remain at healthy levels in education & instruction, social science, legal, insurance and several engineering categories — all above their pre-pandemic baseline. That said, all of those except legal have seen year-on-year declines, with education & instruction having recorded the biggest drop in percentage point terms over the past year among all job categories. 

Conversely, nursing, beauty & wellness and media & communications are among categories where postings remain well below baseline. Overall, the vast majority of job categories have seen year-on-year declines in postings. 

Table titled “Sectoral strength varies” shows the UK Job Postings Index as of 15 August 2025 for the strongest and weakest performing occupations. Education & instruction is the strongest performer, while nursing is the weakest. 
Table titled “Sectoral strength varies” shows the UK Job Postings Index as of 15 August 2025 for the strongest and weakest performing occupations. Education & instruction is the strongest performer, while nursing is the weakest. 

Broken down by remote-work tier, job postings in categories that tend to offer the most remote opportunities continue to trend weakest, with postings 27% below baseline. Low- and mid-remote postings are 21% and 19% below baseline, respectively. 

Line chart titled “High-remote sectors continue to track weakest” shows the UK Job Postings Index by remote-work tier. High-remote occupations continue to track weakest. 
Line chart titled “High-remote sectors continue to track weakest” shows the UK Job Postings Index by remote-work tier. High-remote occupations continue to track weakest. 

Reflecting weakness in several tech and professional categories, along with the continued drag from higher levels of hybrid-working compared with those seen pre-pandemic, London and the South East continue to underperform at the regional level. Postings in the capital are 31% below baseline, while those in the South East are down 33%. 

The North East and Northern Ireland are the strongest performers on this metric, with postings 8% and 7% above baseline respectively. 

Line chart titled “London and South East continue to underperform” shows the jobs postings index for those regions versus the UK overall. London and the South East continue to lag on this metric. 
Line chart titled “London and South East continue to underperform” shows the jobs postings index for those regions versus the UK overall. London and the South East continue to lag on this metric. 

Payrolled employment has continued to gradually decline

The latest Office for National Statistics data show that the number of payrolled employees across the UK has been falling over the past six months, though lately the pace of decline appears to have eased.  

The hospitality sector was widely expected to be hit hard by April’s tax hike, and has seen a reduction of 4.9% year-on-year in food & accommodation payrolled employees. Information & communication has meanwhile seen a 2.7% drop. Conversely, arts, entertainment & recreation (+1.6%), health & social work (+1.5%) and finance & insurance (+1.4%) have seen the biggest increases. 

Meanwhile, redundancy notifications have remained within their recent range, suggesting little sign of an impending spike in unemployment. 

Conclusion

A clear pattern has become established in the UK labour market, with weak hiring demand paired with still-limited job losses and persistently high wage growth. The high wage growth is one of the key reasons monetary policymakers at the Bank of England remain cautious about cutting interest rates too fast, despite having reduced their key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4% in August. While a further interest rate cut in November remains on the table, it’s by no means a done deal and is dependent on how the economic data evolves in the interim. 

Hiring Lab Data

Job postings data is available on our Data Portal. We also host the underlying job-postings chart data on GitHub as downloadable CSV files. Typically, it will be updated with the latest data one day after this blog post is published. 

Methodology

Data on seasonally adjusted Indeed job postings are an index of the number of seasonally adjusted job postings on a given day, using a seven-day trailing average. Feb. 1, 2020, is our pre-pandemic baseline, so the index is set to 100 on that day. We seasonally adjust each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. We adopted this methodology in January 2021. 

To calculate the average rate of wage growth, we follow an approach similar to the Atlanta Fed US Wage Growth Tracker, but we track jobs, not individuals. We begin by calculating the median posted wage for each country, month, job title, region and salary type (hourly, monthly or annual). Within each country, we then calculate year-on-year wage growth for each job title-region-salary type combination, generating a monthly distribution. Our monthly measure of wage growth for the country is the median of that distribution. 

The number of job postings on Indeed.com, whether related to paid or unpaid job solicitations, is not indicative of potential revenue or earnings of Indeed, which comprises a significant percentage of the HR Technology segment of its parent company, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. Job posting numbers are provided for information purposes only and should not be viewed as an indicator of performance of Indeed or Recruit. Please refer to the Recruit Holdings investor relations website and regulatory filings in Japan for more detailed information on revenue generation by Recruit’s HR Technology segment.