UK Job Postings Through 10 September: Stabilisation
Job postings pause for breath after sustained surge.
We regularly update this report to track the pandemic’s effects on the labour market.
Job postings on Indeed UK levelled off in the latest fortnight. That followed a sustained run of strong growth over the past few months but still leaves postings well above their pre-pandemic level. Job postings — a real-time measure of labour market activity — were 26.1% above the 1 February 2020, pre-pandemic baseline, seasonally adjusted, as of 10 September 2021.
Survey data indicate the UK economy has lost some momentum recently, with businesses in part linking this to staff shortages curtailing activity. We looked at how demand for labour has outpaced supply in a number of sectors in a recent post, leading to rising wage pressures in those categories.
Veterinary, education & instruction and dental on the rise
The veterinary category saw the biggest improvement in trend during the past fortnight. This was followed by education & instruction and dental. Chemical engineering, real estate and therapy saw the sharpest deteriorations.
London continues to see slowest regional recovery
The regional picture remained little changed in the past fortnight. London remains the laggard, with job postings 10% above pre-pandemic levels. It will be interesting to see how the return of office workers affects London — and other large commuter cities — where their prolonged absence has weighed on local services jobs for a prolonged period. The North East continues to lead the regional recovery, with job postings 55% above the pre-pandemic level.
Middlesbrough and Sunderland have strongest recoveries
Looking at job posting recoveries by cities and large towns, postings are furthest above pre-pandemic levels in Middlesbrough, followed by Sunderland, Stoke, Barnsley and Hull.
As we discussed in a previous post, posting recovery has been fastest in cities with higher shares of manufacturing, distribution, healthcare and education jobs, while areas reliant on hospitality, tourism and highly paid, white-collar, work-from-home jobs trail.
Aberdeen and Crawley are the only two cities and large towns we track where job postings have not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
We host the underlying job-postings chart data on Github as downloadable CSV files. Typically, it will be updated with the latest data one day after this blog post was published.
All figures in this blog post are the percentage change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since 1 February, 2020, using a seven-day trailing average. 1 February, 2020, is our pre-pandemic baseline. We seasonally adjust each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. We adopted this new methodology in January 2021.
Information is based on publicly available information on the Indeed UK website (and any other countries named in the post), is limited to the UK (and those countries), is not a projection of future events, and includes both paid and unpaid job solicitations.
Jack is an Economist on the Indeed Hiring Lab who focuses on the UK/Ireland labour market. Before joining Indeed, Jack was a senior economist at Nationwide Building Society and prior to that at global information provider IHS Markit. He holds an MSc in finance and economic policy from SOAS, University of London and a BSc in economics and finance from the University of York.