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UK Job Postings Through 2 July: Growth Continues

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But some sectors including hospitality see slight falls after delay to full reopening.

We regularly update this report to track the pandemic’s effects on the labour market. 

Job postings on Indeed UK continue to rise. Job postings — a real-time measure of labour market activity — were 11% above the 1 February, 2020, pre-pandemic baseline, seasonally adjusted, as of 2 July, 2021. That was a 4.7 percentage point (ppt) gain from a fortnight ago. Improvement was maintained despite the delay to the final stage of reopening from 21 June to 19 July. But the latest growth was uneven — some categories which have seen strong growth in recent months saw slight reversals in the latest period. 

A line graph titled “Job postings on Indeed UK” showing the percentage change in job postings on Indeed UK since 01 Feb 2020, seasonally adjusted, to 02 Jul 2021. There was an 11% change in UK job postings on Indeed from 01 Feb 2020 to 02 Jul 2021.

Hospitality hiring stalls 

In contrast to the improvement in the overall trend, the food preparation & service category saw a deterioration in the latest fortnight. This category has seen very strong growth in recent months as hospitality reopened. One possible explanation for the decline is the delay in lifting social distancing restrictions, which may have temporarily put the brakes on hiring in the sector. Alternatively, the ramp-up may have peaked after the initial rush to hire staff (or jobs might be being filled faster). 

Community & social service, construction, hospitality & tourism and software development also saw slight reversals in job posting trends. However, with the expectation of hospitality & tourism, they remain well above pre-pandemic levels.

Physicians & surgeons, social science, chemical engineering, security & public safety, customer service and medical information saw improvements over the latest fortnight. 

Table titled “Food preparation & service hiring stalls.” Indeed compared the percent change in UK job postings, between 01 February, 2020, and 02 Jul 2021 across various sectors divided into sections “strongest performers,” and “weakest performers.” The strongest performers were physicians & surgeons, social science and chemical engineering, while the weakest performers were community & social service, food preparation & service and construction.

Wales pulls ahead

Wales reached the front of the pack for regional job posting recoveries, ahead of the North East, while Northern Ireland and London are the only places where job postings have yet to reach the pre-pandemic benchmark.  

Bar graph titled “Job postings on Indeed UK.” This bar graph shows the percentage change in job postings on Indeed UK since 01 Feb 2020, seasonally adjusted, to 02 Jul 2021. Wales saw a 34% change, the largest, while Northern Ireland saw the lowest % change at -5%.

Middlesbrough has strongest job postings recovery

Looking across cities and large towns, the job posting recovery has been strongest in Middlesbrough, followed by Swansea, Barnsley and Hull. Aberdeen, Crawley, Aldershot and Belfast are furthest below pre-pandemic levels. As we discussed in a previous post, posting recovery has been fastest in cities with higher shares of manufacturing, distribution, healthcare and education jobs, while areas reliant on hospitality, tourism and highly paid, white-collar, work-from-home jobs trail.

Table titled “Middlesbrough furthest above pre-crisis levels.” This table shows the percentage change in job postings on Indeed UK since 01 Feb 2020, seasonally adjusted, to 02 Jul 2021. Middlesbrough saw a 50% change, the largest, while Aberdeen saw the lowest % change at -38%.

We host the underlying job-postings chart data on Github as downloadable CSV files. Typically, it will be updated with the latest data one day after this blog post was published.

Methodology

All figures in this blog post are the percentage change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since 1 February, 2020, using a seven-day trailing average. 1 February, 2020, is our pre-pandemic baseline. We seasonally adjust each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. We adopted this new methodology in January 2021. 

Information is based on publicly available information on the Indeed UK website (and any other countries named in the post), is limited to the UK (and those countries), is not a projection of future events, and includes both paid and unpaid job solicitations.