UK Job Postings Through 18 June: Growth Cools
Slower rise in job postings last week.
We regularly update this report to track the pandemic’s effects on the labour market.
Job postings growth continues, though the pace eased last week. Job postings — a real-time measure of labour market activity — were 7.3% above the 1 February, 2020, pre-pandemic baseline, seasonally adjusted, as of 18 June, 2021. That was a 0.8 percentage point (ppt) gain from the previous week, the smallest since early April. It comes amid a delay to the final stage of reopening to 19 July, which maintains restrictions particularly on the hospitality sector.
Growth in cleaning, hospitality & tourism and retail
The strongest improvement during the latest fortnight was in cleaning & sanitation, followed by hospitality & tourism and retail. Social science, physicians & surgeons and chemical engineering saw the biggest deteriorations.
The food preparation & service category has been ramping up strongly in recent months amid the reopening of pubs and restaurants. However, in the very latest week (11 June to 18 June) it failed to record an improvement in the job postings trend for the first time since February.
North East remains strongest performing region
The North East continues to lead the regional rankings, followed by Wales. Northern Ireland, London and the South East are the only regions where job postings still haven’t returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Middlesbrough has strongest job postings recovery
At the cities and large towns level, manufacturing and distribution hubs in the North of England and the Midlands continue to see the strongest job posting recoveries, led by Hull, Middlesbrough and Barnsley.
Places with particularly high exposure to hard-hit sectors continue to see the weakest job posting recoveries, notably Aberdeen (oil and gas) and Crawley (aviation).
All figures in this blogpost are the percentage change in seasonally-adjusted job postings since 1 February, 2020, using a seven-day trailing average. 1 February, 2020, is our pre-pandemic baseline. We seasonally adjust each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. We adopted this new methodology in January 2021.
Information is based on publicly available information on the Indeed UK website (and any other countries named in the post), is limited to the UK (and those countries), is not a projection of future events, and includes both paid and unpaid job solicitations.
Jack is an Economist on the Indeed Hiring Lab who focuses on the UK/Ireland labour market. Before joining Indeed, Jack was a senior economist at Nationwide Building Society and prior to that at global information provider IHS Markit. He holds an MSc in finance and economic policy from SOAS, University of London and a BSc in economics and finance from the University of York.