Key Points:

  • Australian employment fell by 52,800 people in February, the largest monthly decline since December 2023. 
  • However, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, and the underemployment rate fell to its lowest level since August 2008. 
  • After reaching a record high in January, Australia’s participation rate fell by 0.4 percentage points in February. 

Australian employment fell 52,800 people in February — falling well short of market expectations — while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%.

When interpreting the latest labour market figures, it’s important to remember that monthly data can be volatile.  It’s not unusual for the Labour Force Survey to throw up odd results every now and then. Sometimes, this can be due to sampling issues or because the recent data flow has been unsustainably strong.

In February, employment fell by its largest amount since December 2023. That earlier decline didn’t derail Australia’s jobs boom, and I suspect that’ll be true of the February decline as well.

Forward-looking indicators of labour demand, such as job vacancies or job postings, suggest that job creation in the near term remains strong. Employers still need to fill jobs, and labour market conditions shouldn’t deteriorate significantly under those circumstances.

Australian employment increased by 266,200 people over the past year and around 115,000 people over the past six months. Annual growth was the lowest since November 2021, when employment was still heavily impacted by economic restrictions due to the pandemic. Around three-quarters of the annual rise in employment comes from the full-time category, indicating that the economy continues to create a lot of high-quality and well-paying jobs. 

Bar graph titled “Change in Australian employment” shows the annual change in employment for full-time, part-time, and total jobs from 2019 through 2025. With a vertical axis ranging from -800,000 to 1,200,000, Australian employment rose by 266,200 people over the past year, the lowest annual gain since November 2021.
Bar graph titled “Change in Australian employment” shows the annual change in employment for full-time, part-time, and total jobs from 2019 through 2025. With a vertical axis ranging from -800,000 to 1,200,000, Australian employment rose by 266,200 people over the past year, the lowest annual gain since November 2021.

Australia’s unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in February — at first glance, an odd result given the sharp decline in employment. The unemployment rate held steady because Australia’s participation rate declined by 0.4 percentage points in February. Rather than the decline in employment leading to greater unemployment — which is what most people would understandably expect — it instead resulted in a decrease in the size of the labour force itself. 

When the participation rate declines, it puts downward pressure on the unemployment rate. And, in the case of February, it completely absorbed the decline in employment, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged.

Line graph titled “Australian labour force participation rate” shows both the seasonally adjusted and the trend share of the working-age population (%). With a vertical axis ranging from 60 to 68%, Australia’s participation rate reached a record high of 67.8% in February, down 0.4 percentage points from January. 
Line graph titled “Australian labour force participation rate” shows both the seasonally adjusted and the trend share of the working-age population (%). With a vertical axis ranging from 60 to 68%, Australia’s participation rate reached a record high of 67.8% in February, down 0.4 percentage points from January. 

One genuine bright spot in the February data was that Australia’s underemployment rate — the share of Australians with a job who would prefer more hours — fell to its lowest level since August 2008. Given cost-of-living pressures, that’s a great outcome. It also means that a larger share of the workforce has been able to find the hours they need.

Overall, all of Australia’s measures of labour market tightness — the unemployment rate, the underemployment rate and the underutilisation rate — remain low by historical standards. 

Line graph titled “Australian unemployment measures.” With a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 25%, Australian unemployment measures remain low, with the unemployment rate (4.1%), the underemployment rate (5.9%) and the underutilisation rate (9.9%) all low by historical standards. 
Line graph titled “Australian unemployment measures.” With a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 25%, Australian unemployment measures remain low, with the unemployment rate (4.1%), the underemployment rate (5.9%) and the underutilisation rate (9.9%) all low by historical standards. 

Assessment and implications

Despite the recent fall in employment, the Australian job market remains tight, and it should stay that way in the near term. A significant spike in unemployment is unlikely while forward-looking measures of labour demand remain strong.

The Reserve Bank of Australia is unlikely to be too concerned about the February labour force figures. Indeed, a decline in employment is undesirable, but monthly figures can be highly volatile. Another weaker outcome in March, however, would certainly give them a lot to think about.

We expect the Reserve Bank to cut rates in either May or July, broadly consistent with market expectations. The decision will ultimately come down to the next set of quarterly inflation figures, released at the end of April. Every other data release, including the labour force survey, feels secondary at the moment.