Australian Job Postings Through November 5: Job Creation Continues to Rise
The Australian labour market is set to tighten further, as job creation continues to rise.
We regularly update this report to track the pandemic’s effects on the labour market.
Australian job postings continued to surge upward through early November, painting a clear picture of an economy primed for a strong recovery now economic restrictions have eased.
On November 5, job postings were tracking 82% ahead of their level on February 1 last year, our pre-pandemic baseline, after adjusting for seasonal trends. Postings have increased sharply over the past month, beginning prior to the reopening of the New South Wales and Victorian economies.
Throughout October, the pick-up in postings was driven primarily by a sharp rise in new job postings—that is postings that have been on the Indeed website for one week or less. However, new job postings eased a little in recent days, which could be an early sign that the upward momentum in total job postings could slow.
Overall, elevated job postings suggest that the Australian labour market will continue to tighten in the coming months, building on an impressive economic recovery that was temporarily derailed by the extended economic restrictions across New South Wales and Victoria since mid-year.
New South Wales and Victoria continue to drive growth
Around three-quarters of the pick-up in postings over the past fortnight was due to growth in New South Wales and Victoria. That’s been a common theme over the past month.
Postings in Victoria are now 90% above their level on February 1 last year, after dipping to 42% in early September. Meanwhile, postings in New South Wales are now 88% above its pre-pandemic level. New postings for both states have eased a little in recent days.
Growth elsewhere has been more gradual, with the other states making steady improvement week after week. Postings outside of Australia’s two largest states are now 72% above their pre-pandemic level, led by Western Australia (+88%).
Recovery in some lockdown-sensitive occupations
Postings for most occupational groups are now above their mid-year level, including lockdown-sensitive occupations such as hospitality & tourism, retail and beauty & wellness.
The recovery in hospitality & tourism postings has been a long time coming. Tourism has been devastated by border closures, both interstate and international, as well as the range of economic restrictions imposed by state governments.
Postings for hospitality & tourism didn’t pass their pre-pandemic level until mid-October but have been much improved since mid-year. Postings in hospitality & tourism are now 56% higher than at mid-year and may increase further now that borders are reopening and travel has resumed.
Postings for some occupations, such as food preparation, have had relatively small increases since mid-year but that’s largely reflective of the fact that hiring was already very strong at mid-year.
Overall, postings for all but two occupational groups, medical information and logistic support, are now above their mid-year level. While postings for every occupational group is above its level on February 1 last year.
Recent improvement in job postings point towards a further tightening of Australian labour market conditions. With job creation dominated by New South Wales and Victoria, it is likely that labour market conditions in those two states will begin to close the gap on the rest of Australia.
While the second half of 2021 has been far from ideal, the Australian economy is well placed for a strong recovery over the remainder of the year, putting us in a good position to thrive next year.
All figures in this blog post are derived from seasonally-adjusted job postings. We seasonally adjust each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018 and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors and sub-national geographics is seasonally adjusted separately. We adopted this new methodology in January 2021.
The national and regional analysis is based on the percentage change in job postings since February 1, 2020, our pre-pandemic baseline. Recently, we have compared occupational job postings against their level on June 30, 2021, to capture the impact of recent COVID-19 lockdowns.
The number of job postings on Indeed.com, whether related to paid or unpaid job solicitations, is not indicative of potential revenue or earnings of Indeed, which comprises a significant percentage of the HR Technology segment of its parent company, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. Job posting numbers are provided for information purposes only and should not be viewed as an indicator of performance of Indeed or Recruit. Please refer to the Recruit Holdings investor relations website and regulatory filings in Japan for more detailed information on revenue generation by Recruit’s HR Technology segment.
Callam Pickering is an Economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab with a focus on Australia. Previously he was an economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia focusing on household spending and house prices. He also worked as the economic editor at online publications the Business Spectator and Eureka Report where he covered economic issues relating to Australia. Callam earned a Bachelor of economics and Accounting from Monash University.