{"id":13837,"date":"2025-02-03T14:53:55","date_gmt":"2025-02-03T14:53:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/uk\/?p=13837"},"modified":"2025-02-18T18:15:42","modified_gmt":"2025-02-18T18:15:42","slug":"january-labour-market-update-undeniably-weak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/uk\/blog\/2025\/02\/03\/january-labour-market-update-undeniably-weak\/","title":{"rendered":"January 2025 UK Labour Market Update: Undeniably Weak, but Not Getting Weaker (For Now)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>As of 24 January, UK job postings were 14% below their pre-pandemic baseline, in contrast to peer economies, which are in positive territory.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Opportunities vary by sector. Many professional categories remain weak, while demand for some in-person occupations is still relatively high.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strong wage growth persists across a range of occupational categories, led by security &amp; public safety, retail and customer service.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Our Labour Market Updates examine important trends using Indeed and other labour market data. Our recently introduced <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/d341ezm4iqaae0.cloudfront.net\/hiringlaborg\/sites\/3\/2024\/10\/02171039\/European_Chartbook_Oct24.pptx.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><em>European Labour Market Overview chartbook<\/em><\/strong><\/a><em> provides a more comprehensive view of the European labour market. Other data, including the Indeed Wage Tracker, are regularly updated and can be accessed on our <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/data.indeed.com\/#\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><em>data portal<\/em><\/strong><\/a><em>.<\/em><br><br>Gloom around the state of the UK labour market is pervasive at the start of 2025. But while things are bad, driven in part by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/2025\/jan\/09\/permanent-job-vacancies-in-uk-shrink-at-fastest-pace-for-four-years\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ongoing policy changes<\/a>, they haven\u2019t gotten too much worse over the past few weeks. After sliding virtually uninterrupted over the past two-plus years, the level of job postings appears to have stabilised lately, though at admittedly low levels that don\u2019t match peer economies. Meanwhile, strong wage growth persists in spite of the fragile state of hiring demand. Stubbornly high wage growth remains one of the key factors being watched by policymakers at the Bank of England as they weigh the appropriate level of interest rates needed to balance inflation and recession risks.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">UK job postings continue to languish\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>UK job postings remain subdued. As of 24 January, postings were 14% below their 1 February 2020, pre-pandemic baseline. That\u2019s in contrast to other developed economies where postings are above the baseline, in several cases comfortably so. Among advanced economies tracked by Indeed, only France saw a bigger decline in postings over the past year (-23% versus -20% for the UK), and the total level of postings in France remains almost 30% above pre-pandemic levels. Subdued hiring demand reflects weak business sentiment ahead of the Budget <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/c4g7x6p865zo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">changes<\/a> coming into effect in April, especially an increase in National Insurance Contributions (NICs) which will raise payroll costs for many employers.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcbjVDG1c8v2PlKdbIjt_Stv5z9MPUv4sBySvSekDz5SGCtkkX7DkaDYdTjOf4ERE6Bhb9dnII7lwj0I54TVzE_7ZkclEmXGg3FSNSA_9Qh3IsDQtpnXwXrDVYW-hKG11JFqQ3PrA?key=N0ChYw5k5_SVbsK0N9r4Cx4o\" alt=\"Line chart titled \u201cUK job postings remain below pre-pandemic levels\u201d shows the Indeed Job Postings Index from 1 February 2020 to 24 January 2025 in the UK, US, Australia, Canada, Ireland, France and Germany. The UK is the only country where job postings are below their pre-pandemic baseline.\u00a0\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line chart titled \u201cUK job postings remain below pre-pandemic levels\u201d shows the Indeed Job Postings Index from 1 February 2020 to 24 January 2025 in the UK, US, Australia, Canada, Ireland, France and Germany. The UK is the only country where job postings are below their pre-pandemic baseline.\u00a0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>However, the level of postings hasn\u2019t crashed since the Budget announcement on 30 October. Rather, they have remained stable, dipping only marginally since Budget day, when postings were 13% below baseline. That\u2019s true even for sectors including hospitality and retail, which are expected to be <a href=\"https:\/\/news.sky.com\/story\/retailers-warn-reeves-of-inflation-and-job-losses-after-budget-tax-hikes-13253441\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">hit hardest<\/a> by the policy changes. Food service and retail postings have actually risen slightly over the period.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Job postings in high work-from-home sectors continue to lag in-person categories<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Job postings declined across almost all occupational categories in 2024, with the exception of legal.&nbsp;However, some remain comfortably above their pre-pandemic baseline, led by education &amp; instruction (+59% over 1 Feb 2020 levels), real estate (+56%) and social science (+52%). By contrast, job postings are well below the baseline in a handful of tech categories, nursing and beauty &amp; wellness.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXfWGZh5RAln5M4YG8WUcOSwAs6Lkz92uZcoV_wGm-Ugf-ELLwMf4a9B9_yhK0-d_zUGCVftVH6K9l3YBmby6K5M6UbtGPsNsN_Ci1v91M1iAvFGW9_Dnvd9eiIAGlmFTMhlo7_U?key=N0ChYw5k5_SVbsK0N9r4Cx4o\" alt=\"Table titled \u201cSectoral strength varies\u201d shows the Job Postings Index (JPI) for selected categories. The JPI is strongest currently for education &amp; instruction postings and weakest for software development.\u00a0\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Table titled \u201cSectoral strength varies\u201d shows the Job Postings Index (JPI) for selected categories. The JPI is strongest currently for education &amp; instruction postings and weakest for software development.\u00a0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The job postings trend is weakest \u2014 collectively, some 21% below pre-pandemic levels \u2014 for those occupations which tend to offer the most remote-work opportunities, including tech, finance, and marketing. Low-remote occupations, including retail, driving and construction, are 14% below the baseline. Medium-remote occupations, including jobs in the customer service, administrative assistance and real estate sectors, are just 2% below the baseline.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcGxIw_hdTG-1XABlzsrqdafPI3oxhhvm7mUIy8J0Ln6PDl8plIrixrAiP4pYr5z-9OY6C8DzmX61Iq8cNHlwaKVRTDYHMMwtmI5DRY4iFNJeIzzoEcK7l457McWyBjyWjUtn3a1Q?key=N0ChYw5k5_SVbsK0N9r4Cx4o\" alt=\"Line chart titled \u201cPostings are weakest in high work-from-home sectors\u201d shows the Job Postings Index (JPI) for high, medium and low-remote tiers. Postings are weakest for high-remote sectors.\u00a0\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line chart titled \u201cPostings are weakest in high work-from-home sectors\u201d shows the Job Postings Index (JPI) for high, medium and low-remote tiers. Postings are weakest for high-remote sectors.\u00a0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Wage growth remains sticky, despite the cooling jobs market\u00a0<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/employmentandlabourmarket\/peopleinwork\/employmentandemployeetypes\/bulletins\/uklabourmarket\/january2025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">figures<\/a> showed familiar trends, marked by further cooling in the labour market alongside <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/uk\/blog\/2025\/01\/22\/uk-employment-figures-january-2025-sticky-wage-growth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">stubbornly strong wage growth<\/a> in late-2024. The labour market has loosened as vacancies have normalised from post-pandemic peaks and unemployment has risen modestly. Even so, the market overall remains somewhat tight at 1.9 unemployed people per vacancy, a level similar to the prevailing rate just before the pandemic (up from lows of around 1 back in 2022). However, data quality issues around the ONS\u2019 Labour Force Survey continue to muddy the waters around underlying dynamics, with estimates of employment, unemployment and inactivity all subject to significant <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/uk-news\/2024\/dec\/03\/ons-replace-labour-force-survey-uk-jobs-market\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">uncertainty<\/a> due to low response rates.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXe3WVuN16aRveiMkZYSRSKM2WIrDwQbB-d2bOqfrmWrVe6CIkZKaHpHVFL_Ve-8V-P8pNMeT4By90gqJBQvq5BKNeCAaTRMWbU0JS5Vo-ZdZ2ggvpJic0NNZwBcSwMEi0QVwdge?key=N0ChYw5k5_SVbsK0N9r4Cx4o\" alt=\"Line chart titled \u201cUK labour market continues to gradually loosen\u201d shows the ratio of unemployed people per vacancy from 2000 to 2024. Though having risen from a low of 1 back in 2022, the ratio remains fairly low, at 1.9.\u00a0\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line chart titled \u201cUK labour market continues to gradually loosen\u201d shows the ratio of unemployed people per vacancy from 2000 to 2024. Though having risen from a low of one back in 2022, the ratio remains fairly low, at 1.9.\u00a0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The Indeed Wage Tracker also shows strong pay pressures. Posted wage growth eased slightly in December but was still running at a punchy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/uk\/blog\/2025\/01\/28\/euro-area-wage-growth-heading-into-2025\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">6.1% year-on-year<\/a>, nearly double the rates seen in the US and euro area. Strong rates of wage growth continued to be seen in a range of occupations in December, led by security &amp; public safety at 8.6% year-on-year, followed by retail (8.4%) and customer service (8.0%).\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcd5Yj3f4GY5FhHDtqK2RlbHkP0GMBcKABXUpY0B25oVvdNTk2Y9XYlDZZstSN_IKpStDpJqjOqQxIU82SURKKKcZlW5e-NnAvUjyaDSD-tHohJX4yZVeW6_cQpYNY5xSOScjtEkg?key=N0ChYw5k5_SVbsK0N9r4Cx4o\" alt=\"Table titled \u201cBroad-based wage growth strength\u201d shows the year-on-year change in posted wages across occupations in December 2024. Security &amp; public safety had the highest annual wage growth at 8.6%.\u00a0\u00a0\" style=\"width:566px;height:auto\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Table titled \u201cBroad-based wage growth strength\u201d shows the year-on-year change in posted wages across occupations in December 2024. Security &amp; public safety had the highest annual wage growth at 8.6%.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>Strong wage growth is good for workers but continues to give the Bank of England a headache, as it remains well above levels consistent with the Bank\u2019s 2% inflation target. At 4.75%, the UK policy rate is now the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/1034304\/central-bank-policy-rates-advanced-emerging-economies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">highest among developed economies<\/a>. The Bank is treading a fine line between balancing upside inflation risks and the downside risks of any further economic weakening and the prospect of a recession.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>It may be thin gruel, but the recent stability in job postings at least suggests the UK labour market\u2019s already weak prospects haven\u2019t deteriorated any further in early 2025. With businesses bracing for the April double whammy of the National Insurance hike and an uplift in the minimum wage, few employers are likely to be overtly bullish on hiring at the moment. The extent to which policymakers in government (through initiatives to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/articles\/cx2q49g78g3o\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">kick-start growth<\/a>) and at the Bank of England (through <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/rates-bonds\/bank-england-readies-rate-cut-could-hint-more-come-2025-01-30\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">lower interest rates<\/a>) are able to ride to the UK economy\u2019s rescue this year will do much to shape how the job market fares this year and beyond.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Hiring Lab Data<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Job postings data is available on our <a href=\"https:\/\/data.indeed.com\/#\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Data Portal<\/a>. We also host the <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/hiring-lab\/data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">underlying job-postings chart data on Github<\/a> as downloadable CSV files. Typically, it will be updated with the latest data one day after this blog post is published.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Methodology<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Data on seasonally adjusted Indeed job postings are an index of the number of seasonally adjusted job postings on a given day, using a seven-day trailing average. Feb. 1, 2020, is our pre-pandemic baseline, so the index is set to 100 on that day. We seasonally adjust each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. We adopted this methodology in January 2021.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>To calculate the average rate of wage growth, we follow an approach similar to the Atlanta Fed <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.atlantafed.org\/chcs\/wage-growth-tracker\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong><em>US Wage Growth Tracker<\/em><\/strong><\/a><em>, but we track jobs, not individuals. We begin by calculating the median posted wage for each country, month, job title, region and salary type (hourly, monthly or annual). Within each country, we then calculate year-on-year wage growth for each job title-region-salary type combination, generating a monthly distribution. Our monthly measure of wage growth for the country is the median of that distribution.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The number of job postings on Indeed.com, whether related to paid or unpaid job solicitations, is not indicative of potential revenue or earnings of Indeed, which comprises a significant percentage of the HR Technology segment of its parent company, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. Job posting numbers are provided for information purposes only and should not be viewed as an indicator of performance of Indeed or Recruit. Please refer to the Recruit Holdings investor relations website and regulatory filings in Japan for more detailed information on revenue generation by Recruit\u2019s HR Technology segment.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hiring demand remains muted, though postings remain at a similar level to where they were just prior to last October\u2019s Budget announcement.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":13839,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"recruiter-hub-blocks.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[253],"post_mwm_category":[349],"post_topic":[],"post_content_type":[],"post_duration":[],"post_actions":[],"post_franchise":[],"post_mwm_author":[305],"class_list":["post-13837","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-multimedia","post_mwm_category-state-of-the-labour-market","post_mwm_author-jackkennedy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>January 2025 UK Labour Market Update: Undeniably Weak, but Not Getting Weaker (For Now) - Indeed Hiring Lab UK I Ireland<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Hiring demand remains muted, 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