{"id":13516,"date":"2023-06-28T15:22:42","date_gmt":"2023-06-28T14:22:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/uk\/?p=13516"},"modified":"2023-07-28T16:40:26","modified_gmt":"2023-07-28T15:40:26","slug":"june-2023-uk-labour-market-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/uk\/blog\/2023\/06\/28\/june-2023-uk-labour-market-update\/","title":{"rendered":"June 2023 UK Labour Market Update: Wage Growth Jump Adds to Rate Hike Expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Wage growth acceleration points to further Bank of England monetary policy tightening.&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The labour market remains tight despite falling vacancies and inactivity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Lower jobseeker interest in several lower-paid categories underlines hiring challenges.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The UK labour market shows further signs of rebalancing but is still tight. These signs are generating strong nominal wage growth which, combined with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-65966723\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">persistently high inflation<\/a>, points to the need for further monetary policy tightening amid concerns of a wage-price spiral.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Spotlight: Shifts in j<\/strong><strong>obseeker interest and job postings means hiring is becoming easier in some occupations but harder in others&nbsp;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Hiring challenges persist in lower-paid, in-person categories. Jobseeker interest in occupations like cleaning, community work, hospitality &amp; tourism and construction remains lower than pre-pandemic, relative to the average job on Indeed. But higher-paid, remote-friendly occupations like tech, mathematics and media &amp; communications continue to see increased jobseeker interest than pre-pandemic.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These trends are reinforced by the UK\u2019s post-Brexit migration policy which prioritises the higher-skilled end of the labour market and healthcare occupations in particular. Worker shortages in lower-paid sectors are likely to remain a feature of the labour market for some time to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh6.googleusercontent.com\/8b2xeZLOQX3wFn-9gTsbgJnbRUIbXZV9k-mYI6uHmshOcgCePWbZxHAATYRbkH-NZwKW5xBWKOGr3GbUe_xw5JbvqmUGjcXNTRn-fbOwIdLPfynXCpkNdFAa3c5xi8KkomppAj1kC8yizPQjPdgw5Vg\" alt=\"Bar chart titled \u201cJobseeker interest has shifted\u201d showing the change in relative jobseeker interest across certain occupations between 1 February 2020 and 2 June 2023. Software development saw the biggest increase in relative jobseeker interest, while cleaning &amp; sanitation saw the biggest decline. \" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Bar chart titled \u201cJobseeker interest has shifted\u201d showing the change in relative jobseeker interest across certain occupations between 1 February 2020 and 2 June 2023. Software development saw the biggest increase in relative jobseeker interest, while cleaning &amp; sanitation saw the biggest decline.&nbsp;<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Labour Market Overview<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Noteworthy in the latest ONS figures was that the number of people in employment climbed above its pre-pandemic level, hitting a record high of 33.1 million in the three months to April. That marks a <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2023\/06\/13\/economy\/uk-labor-shortage-interest-rates-ons\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">slower recovery<\/a> in employment than in other developed economies.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hours worked also finally climbed above their pre-pandemic level, but there was a surprise dip in the unemployment rate, which edged down to 3.8%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Labour demand continued to cool though. Vacancies continued their gradual descent in the three months to May and are now down 19%&nbsp; from last year\u2019s peak. However, they remain high at over 1.05 million and are still 27% above their level on the eve of the pandemic.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One metric of labour market tightness, the ratio of unemployed jobseekers for each vacancy, remains close to historic lows at just 1.2. That\u2019s up from a low of 0.9 late last summer.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh6.googleusercontent.com\/MoOs5g_rz2ldQYahk-PfJ4S-1O6S8ZBpyRa9jmERyeHcQS076KzhM5zdklE7dOIGzwMhKebX6sVBRrU7oc03hGo6YBccyfTRw9soWzGSRZj-xuaXo3lADa4UpwCKobXkRKs1AlaQqkIA5xmwuHbwMSA\" alt=\"Line chart titled \u201cLabour market remains tight\u201d showing the number of unemployed people per vacancy from 2001 to 2023. At just 1.2, the ratio of unemployed to vacancies remains close to historical lows.\u00a0\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line chart titled \u201cLabour market remains tight\u201d showing the number of unemployed people per vacancy from 2001 to 2023. At just 1.2, the ratio of unemployed to vacancies remains close to historical lows.&nbsp;<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Worker shortages have eased somewhat but appear likely to remain a long-term issue. One reason is that economic inactivity among working-age people remains almost 350,000 above its pre-pandemic level, despite having dropped nearly 300,000 from last summer\u2019s peak.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh6.googleusercontent.com\/8PKUoYSIEjjvBff7-ADGPVgK9TuTFKdUJGPstDw2O6R-D3-EC_8PMbizlZkpOxy1fNWMOB2lCWUaW5lNQ4Q4slYJ4cc4tjnQLMHomsNHQX0Cdi2CvGg8jxuYbtQr7ewzIjDGGi5DeUvI0NB9NsMWtqA\" alt=\"Line chart titled \u201cInactivity\u00a0 has fallen from its peak\u201d showing the quarterly change in economic inactivity from January 2016 to April 2023. The inactivity rate fell to 21.0% in the three months to April, but remained above its pre-pandemic level of 20.2%.\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line chart titled \u201cInactivity&nbsp; has fallen from its peak\u201d showing the quarterly change in economic inactivity from January 2016 to April 2023. The inactivity rate fell to 21.0% in the three months to April, but remained above its pre-pandemic level of 20.2%.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Inactivity due to long-term sickness remains a key concern, hitting a new record high of nearly 2.6 million in the latest period. The continued rise in inactivity due to ill health has been offset in recent months by a drop in those inactive due to studying. Many young people opted to ride out a tough pandemic labour market by staying longer in education, but are now entering the workforce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"562\" src=\"https:\/\/d341ezm4iqaae0.cloudfront.net\/hiringlaborg\/sites\/3\/2023\/06\/02171156\/Screenshot-2023-06-28-at-9.25.16-AM-1024x562.png\" alt=\"Line chart titled \u201cInactivity due to ill health at record high\u201d showing the trend in economic inactivity due to long-term sickness and because of studying from 2016 to 2023. Inactivity due to long-term sickness stands at a record high.\" class=\"wp-image-13520\" srcset=\"https:\/\/d341ezm4iqaae0.cloudfront.net\/hiringlaborg\/sites\/3\/2023\/06\/02171156\/Screenshot-2023-06-28-at-9.25.16-AM-1024x562.png 1024w, https:\/\/d341ezm4iqaae0.cloudfront.net\/hiringlaborg\/sites\/3\/2023\/06\/02171156\/Screenshot-2023-06-28-at-9.25.16-AM-300x165.png 300w, https:\/\/d341ezm4iqaae0.cloudfront.net\/hiringlaborg\/sites\/3\/2023\/06\/02171156\/Screenshot-2023-06-28-at-9.25.16-AM-768x422.png 768w, https:\/\/d341ezm4iqaae0.cloudfront.net\/hiringlaborg\/sites\/3\/2023\/06\/02171156\/Screenshot-2023-06-28-at-9.25.16-AM.png 1242w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line chart titled \u201cInactivity due to ill health at record high\u201d showing the trend in economic inactivity due to long-term sickness and because of studying from 2016 to 2023. Inactivity due to long-term sickness stands at a record high.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Inactivity challenges have been partially compensated by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/uk\/net-migration-uk-hits-record-606000-2022-2023-05-25\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">record net migration<\/a>, though there are signs of that slowing.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Wage growth accelerates<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In line with the steer from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/uk\/blog\/2023\/06\/07\/global-wage-growth-up-in-the-uk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Indeed Wage Tracker<\/a>, regular pay growth as tracked by the Office for National Statistics quickened from 6.8% to 7.2% year-on-year in the three months to April, the highest outside pandemic-related distortions in at least 20 years. The recent national minimum wage uplift of 9.7%, and public sector pay deals\u2014including those for nurses\u2014are contributory factors.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the continued tightness in the labour market appears to be supporting workers\u2019 ability to obtain substantial pay increases in response to high consumer price inflation. While inflation is expected to fall back in the second half of the year, workers continued to experience real-term pay cuts in the latest period, as regular pay after accounting for inflation dropped by 1.3% y\/y.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh4.googleusercontent.com\/p4ynzrbnYWEwMkqMFq_sj1eosGpvYeu8K99XI9-f45H0O9ow5mIcapkSJNDTeRUpz0Fe-H8kXiE19xEhsR6E193CqEw_bgaAPfMj8IN-WaBLTtpZuYVNV4u-L7kT5iGB9e-18KjvxIpqpverVnbpxBI\" alt=\"Line chart titled \u201cWage growth eroded by high inflation\u201d showing year-on-year growth in regular pay in nominal terms and after adjusting for CPIH inflation. Despite strong nominal pay growth of 7.2% y\/y, real terms wages were down 1.3% y\/y in the three months to April.\u00a0\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line chart titled \u201cWage growth eroded by high inflation\u201d showing year-on-year growth in regular pay in nominal terms and after adjusting for CPIH inflation. Despite strong nominal pay growth of 7.2% y\/y, real terms wages were down 1.3% y\/y in the three months to April.&nbsp;<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Wage growth accelerated in both the private and public sectors, reaching 7.6% y\/y and 5.6% y\/y, respectively.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh5.googleusercontent.com\/fF91H5bhgUlPa1k-dZJnL12T2iK_fPezyhRcKl0eEecXNsDnGgyvYTpEoGDQ_wxdIBCjQFn8EVOqsoBZ3VdQyZOZDzeerRU3_6H2a_oX2Y6unB1Xma6dUx-pf-1RVdwFY0Nf8GVyHScbAxq0_cm-dhU\" alt=\"Line chart titled \u201cHigh private and public sector pay growth\u201d showing year-on-year growth in regular pay in the private and public sectors. Private sector regular pay growth was 7.6% y\/y in the three months to April, compared with 5.6% y\/y in the public sector. \u00a0\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line chart titled \u201cHigh private and public sector pay growth\u201d showing year-on-year growth in regular pay in the private and public sectors. Private sector regular pay growth was 7.6% y\/y in the three months to April, compared with 5.6% y\/y in the public sector. <\/em>&nbsp;<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusion<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The labour market continues to rebalance, but not quickly enough for the Bank of England. Elevated wage pressures suggest the need for interest rates to rise higher for longer to get inflation under control. This spells pain for mortgage holders and adds to headwinds facing the UK economy.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the meantime, the resilience of the job market continues to be a positive for workers, as plentiful opportunities mean they retain a fair degree of bargaining power. Employers will be hoping to see further improvements on the labour supply side to ease hiring challenges further and reduce upward pressure on pay.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Hiring Lab Data<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We host the <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/hiring-lab\/data\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">underlying job-postings chart data on Github<\/a> as downloadable CSV files. Typically, it will be updated with the latest data one day after this blog post was published.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Methodology<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The Indeed Job Postings Index is a daily measure of labour market activity that is updated and will continue to be released weekly, superseding the Job Postings Tracker. The primary difference between the Indeed Job Postings Index and the legacy Job Postings Tracker is the level. The Indeed Job Postings Index is set to 100 on February 1, 2020, and this effectively provides a uniform level shift of 100 to the existing Job Postings Tracker across all time points.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>The number of job postings on Indeed.com, whether related to paid or unpaid job solicitations, is not indicative of potential revenue or earnings of Indeed, which comprises a significant percentage of the HR Technology segment of its parent company, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. Job posting numbers are provided for information purposes only and should not be viewed as an indicator of performance of Indeed or Recruit. Please refer to the Recruit Holdings investor relations website and regulatory filings in Japan for more detailed information on revenue generation by Recruit\u2019s HR Technology segment.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Though cooling, the labour market remains tight, and strong nominal wage growth is adding to concerns around persistently high inflation. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":13518,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"recruiter-hub-blocks.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[252],"post_mwm_category":[349],"post_topic":[],"post_content_type":[],"post_duration":[],"post_actions":[],"post_franchise":[],"post_mwm_author":[305],"class_list":["post-13516","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-featured","post_mwm_category-state-of-the-labour-market","post_mwm_author-jackkennedy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>June 2023 UK Labour Market Update: Wage Growth Jump Adds to Rate Hike Expectations - Indeed Hiring Lab UK I Ireland<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Though cooling, the labour market remains tight, and 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