Coronavirus and UK Job Postings Through June 26: Data from Indeed
Tepid recovery in hiring intentions as job postings remain far below last year’s trend.
This post is updated as of 26th June 2020. We will continue to update these trends regularly as we track how coronavirus impacts the global labour market.
The latest Indeed UK job postings data indicates that hiring remains depressed. Overall postings were down -59% on last year’s trend as of 26th June. That was a further 1% improvement in trend over the week, following a similar increase the previous week, but does little to alter the picture of a sluggish recovery in hiring.
Job postings for lower-wage occupations have fallen most in the crisis (-72%), unsurprisingly given the hit to sectors such as hospitality which have been shut down. This is closely followed by mid-wage occupations (-67%). Higher-wage occupations have held up better so far, though are still down -55%.
Childcare hiring continues to rise
Since the start of June, childcare jobs have been on the rise (trend up 17.9ppts) as more parents go back to work (or need childcare while working from home). Beauty & wellness is up 12.2ppts, though remains -73.8% below last year’s trend. Hairdressers are allowed to reopen from 4th July but other types of close contact business such as massage therapists and nail bars are not yet being permitted to reopen. Loading & stocking is up 11.2ppts over the month amid a reopening of non-essential retailers. The medical technician and scientific research & development categories are also up over the month.
At the other end of the scale, one of the categories that held up better earlier in the crisis, personal care & home health, weakened the most in June (down -5ppts).
Regional data continues to indicate a broad-based hit to job postings. Scotland has seen the biggest decline (-65.6%), followed by the South West (-63.5%). The least marked declines have been in the North East (-54.8%), West Midlands (-55.3%) and East of England (-55.8%).
We will continue to provide regular updates on these trends as the situation evolves.
To measure the trends in total job postings, we calculated the 7-day moving average of the number of UK job postings on Indeed. We indexed each day’s 7-day moving average to the start of that year (1 February 2020 = 100 for 2020 data, and so on), or another date if specified on the chart.
For each country we report how the trend in total job postings this year differs from last year, in order to focus on the recent changes in labour market conditions due to COVID-19. For example: if job postings for a country increased 30% from 1 February 2019 to 26 June 2019, but only 20% from 1 February 2020 to 26 June 2020, then the index would have risen from 100 to 130 in 2019 and 100 to 120 in 2020. The year-to-date trend in job postings would therefore be down 7.7% on 26 June (120 is 7.7% below 130) in 2020 relative to 2019.
Information is based on publicly available information on the Indeed UK website (and other countries named in this post), limited to the UK (and those countries), is not a projection of future events, and includes both paid and unpaid job solicitations.
Jack is an Economist on the Indeed Hiring Lab who focuses on the UK/Ireland labour market. Before joining Indeed, Jack was a senior economist at Nationwide Building Society and prior to that at global information provider IHS Markit. He holds an MSc in finance and economic policy from SOAS, University of London and a BSc in economics and finance from the University of York.