{"id":13733,"date":"2021-11-02T11:39:04","date_gmt":"2021-11-02T15:39:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/en-ca\/?p=13733"},"modified":"2021-11-02T11:39:04","modified_gmt":"2021-11-02T15:39:04","slug":"october-2021-lfs-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/en-ca\/2021\/11\/02\/october-2021-lfs-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"October Labour Force Survey Preview: Where the Recovery Needs to Go Further"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Another strong month of job growth in September brought the employment rate of Canadians ages 25 to 54 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BrendonBernard_\/status\/1446481299183706153?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">to just a hair below<\/a> its February 2020 level. However, the labour market rebound remains incomplete for certain groups. One of those divides is across education levels: employment rates of those aged 25 to 54 with university degrees <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BrendonBernard_\/status\/1450165745476947978?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">have fully recovered<\/a>, while they haven\u2019t for others, despite solid progress.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Digging deeper, this gap across education levels is overwhelmingly concentrated in Canada\u2019s large cities. Employment rates of university grads are back to pre-pandemic levels in both Canada\u2019s nine largest metro areas (CMAs), as well as in the rest of Canada.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meanwhile, conditions for those without university degrees are noticeably weaker in large urban areas than elsewhere. This September, employment rates of those aged 25 to 54 with high school diplomas or less in major CMAs were down 3.4% from two years prior, while they were <em>up<\/em> 1.7% elsewhere. The rebound among those with post-secondary certificates or diplomas has also been weaker in large urban areas.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There\u2019s no one factor evident in the Labour Force Survey data explaining why the employment rebound of prime-age workers without university education has lagged in large urban centres. The gap is evident among both men and women, and also remains after excluding Toronto from the calculation.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Interestingly, one industry <em>not <\/em>driving the difference among this demographic group is accommodation and food services. As of September, declines in this hard-hit sector compared to two years earlier have actually been slightly more severe outside of large CMAs (for both non-degree holders, and overall). Instead, weakness in major urban centres has been more pronounced across a range of industries, led by non-durable goods manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, professional and technical services, as well as business, building and other support services.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A key question for the labour market throughout the pandemic is the ease to which the labour market can recover as the public health crisis fades. Overall progress has been solid, but conditions facing certain groups still aren\u2019t back to pre-pandemic levels. In some sectors, like transportation, as well as certain business support services (e.g. office cleaning), there are potentially direct links between the pandemic\u2019s ongoing economic impacts and the gap in employment recovery between large cities and elsewhere. Whether this suggests further room for strong gains or more entrenched challenges will be important to watch in the months ahead.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><em>Methodology<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>This post uses non-seasonally adjusted Labour Force Survey data available in the public-use microfiles (PUMFs). The nine largest census metropolitan areas included in the PUMFs are: Calgary, Edmonton, Hamilton, Montreal, Ottawa, Quebec, Toronto, Vancouver, and Winnipeg.&nbsp;<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The labour market rebound lags for non-university grads in large cities.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":38,"featured_media":13749,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"recruiter-hub-blocks.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"post_mwm_category":[715],"post_topic":[],"post_content_type":[],"post_duration":[],"post_actions":[],"post_franchise":[],"post_mwm_author":[670],"class_list":["post-13733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","post_mwm_category-state-of-the-labour-market","post_mwm_author-bbernard"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>October Labour Force Survey Preview: Where the Recovery Needs to Go Further - Indeed Hiring Lab Canada<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/en-ca\/2021\/11\/02\/october-2021-lfs-preview\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"October Labour Force Survey Preview: Where the Recovery Needs to Go Further - Indeed Hiring Lab Canada\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The labour market rebound lags for non-university grads in large cities.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/en-ca\/2021\/11\/02\/october-2021-lfs-preview\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Indeed Hiring Lab Canada\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2021-11-02T15:39:04+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/en-ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/2\/2021\/11\/pasted-image-0-36.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"874\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Brendon Bernard\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hiringlab.org\\\/en-ca\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/02\\\/october-2021-lfs-preview\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hiringlab.org\\\/en-ca\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/02\\\/october-2021-lfs-preview\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Brendon 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chart titled \u201cnon-university education still struggling in large cities.\u201d With a vertical axis ranging from -5% to 3%, Indeed compared the percent change in employment rate, aged 25-54 by educational attainment, with bars representing \u201cLarge CMAs\u201d and \u201cRest of Canada\u201d and a horizontal axis representing \u201chigh school grad or less,\u201d \u201cpostsecondary certificate or diploma,\u201d and \u201cuniversity.\u201d This September, employment rates of those aged 25 to 54 with high school diplomas or less in major CMAs were down 3.4% from two years prior, while they were up 1.7% elsewhere.\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hiringlab.org\\\/en-ca\\\/2021\\\/11\\\/02\\\/october-2021-lfs-preview\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.hiringlab.org\\\/en-ca\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"October Labour Force Survey Preview: 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chart titled \u201cnon-university education still struggling in large cities.\u201d With a vertical axis ranging from -5% to 3%, Indeed compared the percent change in employment rate, aged 25-54 by educational attainment, with bars representing \u201cLarge CMAs\u201d and \u201cRest of Canada\u201d and a horizontal axis representing \u201chigh school grad or less,\u201d \u201cpostsecondary certificate or diploma,\u201d and \u201cuniversity.\u201d This September, employment rates of those aged 25 to 54 with high school diplomas or less in major CMAs were down 3.4% from two years prior, while they were up 1.7% elsewhere."},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/en-ca\/2021\/11\/02\/october-2021-lfs-preview\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/en-ca\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"October Labour Force Survey Preview: Where the Recovery Needs to Go 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