{"id":12682,"date":"2025-06-21T00:18:07","date_gmt":"2025-06-20T14:18:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/au\/?p=12682"},"modified":"2025-06-21T00:18:09","modified_gmt":"2025-06-20T14:18:09","slug":"may-2025-au-labour-force-survey-a-small-stumble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/au\/blog\/2025\/06\/21\/may-2025-au-labour-force-survey-a-small-stumble\/","title":{"rendered":"May 2025 AU Labour Force Survey: A Small Stumble"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Key points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Australian employment fell slightly in May, following strong gains in the previous two months.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Australia\u2019s unemployment rate (4.1%), underemployment rate (5.9%) and underutilisation rate (9.9%) are still all low by historical standards.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Reserve Bank of Australia is set to cut interest rates once again when they meet in July.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Australian employment fell 2,500 people in May \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/au.investing.com\/economic-calendar\/employment-change-94\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">below market expectations<\/a> \u2013 while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%. The small drop in employment may seem concerning, but it follows a cumulative gain of around 113,000 in March and April.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the past year, Australian employment has increased by 329,100 people, outpacing growth in the working-age population. Notably, around three-quarters of those gains were in full-time roles. That\u2019s helped to keep the unemployment rate low, supporting Australian households throughout an otherwise difficult economic period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXeMA3WsaAkd3Sf0fEnER8yvozPtWY0lLh60ohhGMpPkYiesYoQLKisNy1SrNd0LrzeJ1jMkCa5z0ZsxrRAKO3jEdzb0DBcbNhxhbUw7kRdElO4a05e0pU5Qzt2G93JlmzrMHJ57LA?key=wvfkqjAD0FIisUQEo7CJsw\" alt=\"Bar graph titled \u201cChange in Australian employment\u201d shows the annual change in employment for full-time, part-time, and total jobs from 2019 through 2025. With a vertical axis ranging from -800,000 to 1,200,000, Australian employment rose by 329,100 people over the past year.\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Bar graph titled \u201cChange in Australian employment\u201d shows the annual change in employment for full-time, part-time, and total jobs from 2019 through 2025. With a vertical axis ranging from -800,000 to 1,200,000, Australian employment rose by 329,100 people over the past year.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Forward-looking measures of labour demand, such as <a href=\"https:\/\/data.indeed.com\/#\/postings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Indeed job postings<\/a>, remain healthy. Employers across the country continue to advertise widely, which should translate into strong employment gains in the near term. However, in an uncertain economic and geopolitical environment, hiring plans can always change quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcy2XKWgG5sMUFMqmgfCoId9PIOX3B_PkHxL8TDkMPEovh0VKV9673Qo5THfQWIWNyP5sli5p0fgm1QiSVQSfXDJcXkNylgVVidNN7g90hAhCfIoAVHJ2Y3M1geVxc9vZ7Nw1N0?key=wvfkqjAD0FIisUQEo7CJsw\" alt=\"Line graph titled \u201cAustralian job postings on Indeed.\u201d With a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 250, indexed so that 1 February 2020 = 100, Australian job postings were 51% above their pre-pandemic baseline on 13 June 2025.\u00a0\u00a0\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line graph titled \u201cAustralian job postings on Indeed.\u201d With a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 250, indexed so that 1 February 2020 = 100, Australian job postings were 51% above their pre-pandemic baseline on 13 June 2025.\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Broader labour market metrics also point to ongoing tightness. In May, the underemployment rate ticked lower to 5.9% \u2013 the second lowest result in the past 15 years. Australia\u2019s underutilisation rate dipped back below 10%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXdLoi1VqaksbjA6IMg0duiiQvX46GFvj5_lrChfrrKhLKAMoAlltWhVWCjwiI7oTjSC7-yRoBK9sLUbzn3lTu7ZQUk6Pg1F71oUhtyjP9-GdwxQYyk4vs6FfOVfxvod6Y5D29Crdw?key=wvfkqjAD0FIisUQEo7CJsw\" alt=\"Line graph titled \u201cAustralian unemployment measures.\u201d With a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 25%, Australian unemployment measures remain low, with the unemployment rate (4.1%), the underemployment rate (5.9%) and the underutilisation rate (9.9%) all low by historical standards.\u00a0\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line graph titled \u201cAustralian unemployment measures.\u201d With a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 25%, Australian unemployment measures remain low, with the unemployment rate (4.1%), the underemployment rate (5.9%) and the underutilisation rate (9.9%) all low by historical standards.\u00a0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>While the participation rate dipped slightly to 67% in May, it is still up 0.3 percentage points over the past year. It means that Australia\u2019s labour market is more diverse in terms of age, gender and ethnicity than it used to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXe6X7-i1WJfGw_73pUf3CkyqlTItc7GXShk-kecu42Hm3J84GVqBkh9XzvHr_tqf8STI4oZvzJ7otqLDOWBiBhTKQXRx0evBqzKfk95DkVpDpH5Vk6zwCNrpdIu9VzEWMzxipY6IA?key=wvfkqjAD0FIisUQEo7CJsw\" alt=\"Line graph titled \u201cAustralian labour force participation rate\u201d shows both the seasonally adjusted and the trend share of the working-age population (%). With a vertical axis ranging from 60 to 68%, Australia\u2019s participation rate was 67% in May, up 0.3 percentage points over the past year.\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line graph titled \u201cAustralian labour force participation rate\u201d shows both the seasonally adjusted and the trend share of the working-age population (%). With a vertical axis ranging from 60 to 68%, Australia\u2019s participation rate was 67% in May, up 0.3 percentage points over the past year.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Assessment and implications<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite recent global turbulence, Australia\u2019s job market remains resilient.\u00a0 Whether the economy has been strong or weak, nothing has derailed Australia\u2019s post-pandemic job boom.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to cut the cash rate again when they meet in July, following earlier cuts in February and May. Markets are pricing a nearly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asx.com.au\/markets\/trade-our-derivatives-market\/futures-market\/rba-rate-tracker\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">80% chance of a rate cut <\/a>in July. While the impact on the job market may not be immediate \u2013 given changes in monetary policy impact the economy with a significant lag \u2013 it may provide crucial support next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Australian employment fell slightly in May \u2013 a somewhat disappointing result \u2013 but we shouldn\u2019t dwell on a slight decline in employment given the strong gains seen in prior months. Forward-looking measures of labour demand remain strong, suggesting that the job market will remain tight in the near term.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":12683,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"recruiter-hub-blocks.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[141],"post_mwm_category":[224],"post_topic":[],"post_content_type":[],"post_duration":[],"post_actions":[],"post_franchise":[],"post_mwm_author":[182],"class_list":["post-12682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-multimedia","post_mwm_category-state-of-the-labour-market","post_mwm_author-cpickering"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>May 2025 AU Labour Force Survey: A Small Stumble - Indeed Hiring Lab Australia<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Australian employment fell slightly in May \u2013 a somewhat disappointing result \u2013 but we shouldn\u2019t dwell on a slight decline in employment given the strong gains seen in prior months. 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