{"id":12631,"date":"2024-12-12T13:16:57","date_gmt":"2024-12-12T02:16:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/au\/?p=12631"},"modified":"2025-01-17T04:43:51","modified_gmt":"2025-01-16T17:43:51","slug":"november-labour-force-survey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/au\/blog\/2024\/12\/12\/november-labour-force-survey\/","title":{"rendered":"November 2024 AU Labour Force Survey: Unemployment Rate Back Below 4%"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Australian employment rose 35,600 people in November, another outstanding result, driving unemployment lower.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Australia\u2019s unemployment rate tumbled to 3.9%, down from 4.1% in October, to be at its lowest level since March.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Growth in hours worked and employment have tracked closely together over the past few years.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Australian employment rose <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/labour\/employment-and-unemployment\/labour-force-australia\/nov-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">35,600 people in November<\/a> \u2013 above market expectations \u2013 and the unemployment rate eased to 3.9%.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Australian employment continues to surge higher, driven by strong job creation across most sectors. Forward-looking indicators of labour demand \u2013 such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/labour\/jobs\/job-vacancies-australia\/latest-release#job-vacancies-over-time\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">job vacancies<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/data.indeed.com\/#\/postings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Indeed job postings<\/a> \u2013 suggest that job creation in the near term will remain strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Australian employment increased by 334,500 people over the past year, including by 243,000 over just the past six months. That type of job growth remains remarkable given Australia\u2019s otherwise challenging economy and reflects ongoing strength in non-market industries such as healthcare &amp; social assistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full-time employment increased by 52,600 people in November, offsetting a decline in part-time employment. Full-time employment accounts for 68% of employment gains over the past year, including 86% over the past six months. That indicates that the Australian economy continues to primarily create good-quality, high-paying opportunities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXeMpIO5mSTk3iF2Y0mKwESVT4JaZZRni_njBKwfoFGiY_fQ9J2tUw4REm1-uli8zpMBFqkgGigi6qbN8x85i2uwZiR7CWypmIC2vMG0wRJ4C76_Z1P6d_9hFKm3IV6U5-9ZaHrS4Q?key=la24dFlZAxlmjR_JvVIAL3G0\" alt=\"Bar graph titled \u201cChange in Australian employment\u201d. With a vertical axis ranging from -800,000 to 1,200,000, Australian employment rose by 334,500 people over the past year, remaining high by historical standards.\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Bar graph titled \u201cChange in Australian employment\u201d. With a vertical axis ranging from -800,000 to 1,200,000, Australian employment rose by 334,500 people over the past year, remaining high by historical standards.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Australia\u2019s unemployment rate tumbled to 3.9% in November, from 4.1% in October, to be at its lowest level since March. While seasonally adjusted unemployment rates can be volatile month-to-month, it\u2019s notable that the unemployment rate has now deviated considerably from the RBA\u2019s expectations of a 4.3% unemployment rate by year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The RBA won\u2019t update its economic forecasts until the release of the February Statement on Monetary Policy. But we\u2019ve seen some recent deviations, partly regarding GDP and the unemployment rate, that suggest the RBA will be making some pretty big revisions.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXfRS19mc_heBtsqMLUs9PHUDOGIHA00waRYlaGqhsjDkHtiU90dvLVx04B_dvQna981Mb8L3lTEEBM58WmnOsHAOQi1-gF73PDY0KZOBy5ZhOTPaYibiUNmw-s5w9lL7BUGTa09OQ?key=la24dFlZAxlmjR_JvVIAL3G0\" alt=\"Line graph titled \u201cAustralian unemployment rate\u201d. With a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 8%, Australia\u2019s unemployment rate was 3.9% in November, well below the latest Reserve Bank of Australia forecasts.\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line graph titled \u201cAustralian unemployment rate\u201d. With a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 8%, Australia\u2019s unemployment rate was 3.9% in November, well below the latest Reserve Bank of Australia forecasts.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Participation in the workforce dipped slightly in November, while the number of hours worked across the economy was unchanged. That\u2019s about the extent of the \u2018negatives\u2019 in the latest labour market figures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Growth in hours worked and employment have tracked pretty similarly throughout the pandemic recovery. Hours worked have increased 11.5% since March 2020, compared to a 12.4% gain for employment. Consequently, average hours worked per person have dipped slightly over that period.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXfv0lMR1Od2KX6aLfbX5klByDqewgid3B-ZueCxGyDaNN1G43quuGUkKrfMMB7iqBnlBwm8JsXAQoKlbmPjNObGj3hxg61N8OoGbKlsIf0shoxPJvm3IGcOEfr023vE6xMUMo0xaQ?key=la24dFlZAxlmjR_JvVIAL3G0\" alt=\"Line graph titled \u201cAustralian unemployment and hours worked\u201d. With a vertical axis ranging from -10 to 15%, aggregate hours worked have increased 11.5% since March 2020 and employment is up 12.4%.\u00a0\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line graph titled \u201cAustralian unemployment and hours worked\u201d. With a vertical axis ranging from -10 to 15%, aggregate hours worked have increased 11.5% since March 2020 and employment is up 12.4%.\u00a0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Assessment and implications<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The only downside to Australia\u2019s remarkably strong job market is that any hope of a near-term interest rate cut is over. Economists were split between a February or a May start to the interest rate easing cycle, but the latest job figures suggest that the latter is now more likely than the former.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Right now, the Australian labour market remains incredibly tight, with forward-looking indicators of labour demand suggesting that won\u2019t change in the near term. The unemployment rate is low, employment growth is strong, and most of those employment gains have been in full-time, well-paying roles. Ongoing job market strength has also helped Australian households absorb cost-of-living pressures and other economic challenges over the past couple of years.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Australia\u2019s labour market tightened further in November, with almost every labour market metric performing strongly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":12632,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"recruiter-hub-blocks.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[141],"post_mwm_category":[224],"post_topic":[],"post_content_type":[],"post_duration":[],"post_actions":[],"post_franchise":[],"post_mwm_author":[182],"class_list":["post-12631","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-multimedia","post_mwm_category-state-of-the-labour-market","post_mwm_author-cpickering"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- 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almost every labour market metric performing strongly.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/au\/blog\/2024\/12\/12\/november-labour-force-survey\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Indeed Hiring Lab Australia\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-12-12T02:16:57+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-01-16T17:43:51+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/au\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/12\/Agriculture_confident-farmer-standing-in-plant-nursery_getty25-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"7952\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"5304\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Callam Pickering\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" 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