{"id":12585,"date":"2024-08-15T13:15:45","date_gmt":"2024-08-15T03:15:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/au\/?p=12585"},"modified":"2024-08-19T10:18:17","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T00:18:17","slug":"july-2024-au-labour-force-survey-unemployment-rate-rises","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.hiringlab.org\/au\/blog\/2024\/08\/15\/july-2024-au-labour-force-survey-unemployment-rate-rises\/","title":{"rendered":"July 2024 AU Labour Force Survey: Unemployment Rate Rises"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Key Points:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Australian employment rose by 58,200 people in July, another stellar result following gains of 52,300 in June.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Australia\u2019s unemployment rate inched higher to 4.2% as workforce participation reached a record high of 67.1%.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Over the past year, growth in hours worked has fallen short of overall employment gains.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/labour\/employment-and-unemployment\/labour-force-australia\/jul-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Australian employment<\/a> rose by 58,200 people in July \u2014 higher than <a href=\"https:\/\/au.investing.com\/economic-calendar\/employment-change-94\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">market expectations<\/a> \u2014 with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% (up from 4.1% in June). The unemployment rate is slightly above the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/publications\/smp\/2024\/aug\/outlook.html#3-5-detailed-forecast-information\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">latest forecasts<\/a> from the Reserve Bank of Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcC_QsltzcQParckFcLlspE8_WsEdYH1kQIeo0yCmmm7DkKCPLyvj4O0nsTWRvF_-WkDTgpbrdclDNrU_vJBAnMzA_KNdvQLwoLaBH0IOhVCRYq2fYcPnqDA9MTDAOUZKBXVyPcrCzmvLc6rMBQqSwYMYdC?key=vZZOhxg5_oTzVofgBGGkyA\" alt=\"Line graph titled \u201cAustralian unemployment rate.\u201d With a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 8%, Australia\u2019s unemployment rate inched up to 4.2% in July, from\u00a0 4.1% in June.\u00a0\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line graph titled \u201cAustralian unemployment rate.\u201d With a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 8%, Australia\u2019s unemployment rate inched up to 4.2% in July, from\u00a0 4.1% in June.\u00a0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Employment gains in July were concentrated in full-time positions (+60,500 people), which more than offset a modest decline in part-time employment (-2,300). Since the beginning of the year, around 85% of employment gains have been of the full-time variety, which is impressive at this point in the economic cycle, and marks a notable shift in hiring trends compared to last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Australian unemployment rate rises despite strong employment gains<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Australia\u2019s unemployment rate inched up to 4.2% in July, but the result isn\u2019t as bad as it first appears \u2014 it was largely a product of record participation in the workforce, with the participation rate reaching 67.1%. Rising participation effectively puts upward pressure on the unemployment rate, which is why we sometimes see the unemployment rate rise despite strong employment gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcBY1jalakcolM-71LnSotRnkpryDZYFzHvBAZ-G1KocPI6DmgCwOfGNY1uhYRPsPPe7-iv5PUxYNeB5jWwVR48wEJTM4WdLPowfIsvO4_OGCSMjTUcEGTujJ3ag1vGQcwiOaWrP5RGhaQHPGWFvuFAVNqi?key=vZZOhxg5_oTzVofgBGGkyA\" alt=\"Line graph titled \u201cAustralian labour force participation rate.\u201d With a vertical axis ranging from\u00a0 60 to 68%, Australia\u2019s participation rate reached a record high of 67.1% in July, and is well above pre-pandemic levels.\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line graph titled \u201cAustralian labour force participation rate.\u201d With a vertical axis ranging from\u00a0 60 to 68%, Australia\u2019s participation rate reached a record high of 67.1% in July, and is well above pre-pandemic levels.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The increase in participation over the past few years has been rather impressive given that Australia\u2019s ageing population continues to put downward pressure on workforce participation. Australia\u2019s job market is older than it has ever been before. However, a strong job market and the nation\u2019s cost-of-living crisis have likely helped offset the impact of demographic factors on workforce participation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, there should still be some concern around rising unemployment. The unemployment rate is up 0.5 percentage points over the past year, a considerable increase over such a short period of time. It\u2019s particularly notable given that national employment increased by 455,400 people, or 3.2% over the past year. Excluding pandemic-related volatility, we haven\u2019t seen growth of that nature in 16 years, and yet, it still wasn\u2019t enough to contain unemployment.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It highlights a clear risk that the unemployment rate might spike if employment growth slows. Obviously, that hasn\u2019t happened yet, but the combination of high population growth and slower employment growth could trigger a big jump in the unemployment rate, if it occurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Total hours worked rose by 0.4% in July and have increased by 0.9% over the past year. Annual growth in hours worked falls well short of overall employment growth (+3.2%), but taking a step back, we can see that hours worked and employment have tracked pretty closely since the pandemic began, despite significant short-term variations.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com\/docsz\/AD_4nXcUS7HY0PwN_lTwwKL4ZUZu94bwPOKu1SoieKZCe5wfLp7XuobbmhXdosCkrdo9Ade_IZYzOH0liUKW72EdbkrTEILCWijwQGm_L1VilDk3vV2bvDgK1pnjGzmJ2ojyWTK8UA_qLRkqlBQIOhqsCDabA-Nm?key=vZZOhxg5_oTzVofgBGGkyA\" alt=\"Line graph titled \u201cAustralian employment and hours worked.\u201d With a vertical axis ranging from\u00a0 -10 to 15%, growth in hours worked and employment have tracked closely since the pandemic began. Recent growth in employment, however, has easily exceeded growth in hours worked.\u00a0\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Line graph titled \u201cAustralian employment and hours worked.\u201d With a vertical axis ranging from\u00a0 -10 to 15%, growth in hours worked and employment have tracked closely since the pandemic began. Recent growth in employment, however, has easily exceeded growth in hours worked.\u00a0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Assessment and implications<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>A mixed set of labour market figures will give the Reserve Bank of Australia plenty to think about. Strong employment growth suggests that the economy remains overheated \u2014 perhaps requiring another increase in the cash rate \u2014 and yet the unemployment rate has increased by 0.5 percentage points over the past year. The job market continues to be supported by strong hiring activity, with <a href=\"https:\/\/data.indeed.com\/#\/postings\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Indeed\u2019s measure of job postings<\/a> still 63% above pre-pandemic levels at the end of July.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the coming months, labour market measures will be pivotal to determining the future direction of monetary policy, along with inflation and household spending data.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Job creation remains strong in Australia, with full-time employment increasing sharply in recent months. Unemployment remains low but continues to gradually rise due to a combination of high population growth and rising participation in the workforce.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":103,"featured_media":12586,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"recruiter-hub-blocks.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":true,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[141],"post_mwm_category":[224],"post_topic":[],"post_content_type":[],"post_duration":[],"post_actions":[],"post_franchise":[],"post_mwm_author":[182],"class_list":["post-12585","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-multimedia","post_mwm_category-state-of-the-labour-market","post_mwm_author-cpickering"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.2 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>July 2024 AU Labour Force Survey: Unemployment Rate Rises - Indeed 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