Coronavirus and US Job Postings Through July 24: Data from Indeed.com
The trend in job postings was 21% lower than in 2019 as of July 24 — the twelfth week of gradual improvement.
We will be regularly updating this data as we track how coronavirus impacts the global labor market.
The global economy has slowed dramatically during the coronavirus pandemic. The trend in job postings — a real-time measure of labor market activity — is 21% lower than in 2019, as of July 24.
The trend in job postings was roughly in line with last year’s trend until the second week of March. Postings were growing 2.9% slower than the trend in 2019 on March 15. The slowdown accelerated in the second half of March and through April to a low point of 39.3% on May 1, with gradual improvement since then.
Job postings for higher-wage occupations have fallen the most. Initially, postings in higher-wage occupations fell less than those in middle- and lower-wage occupations, but have subsequently lagged. Postings in higher-wage occupations are now 30% below trend, versus the 11% below trend for lower-wage occupations.
This pattern is different from the trend in employment. Bureau of Labor Statistics data through mid-June show that lower-wage industries have lost the most jobs in the pandemic, by a wide margin. This might be because it is more expensive and often takes longer to fire and hire higher wage workers. Lower-wage industries like retail and food service might adjust their workforces in response to month-to-month or even week-to-week changes in demand. But higher-wage industries like tech and finance might plan their headcounts based on what they expect demand to look like longer-term, in future quarters or years.
Hospitality and tourism jobs have seen the biggest decline
Job postings have fallen most in occupations directly affected by the coronavirus, such as hospitality & tourism and childcare, as well as jobs not touched directly by virus and that can be done from home, such as software development and banking & finance
Jobs related to driving and retail are now relatively bright spots in the labor market, with job postings above last year’s trend.
Virus-related sectors have driven the recent rise in job postings. In the past two weeks, the trend in job postings improved most in insurance, security & public safety, and cleaning & sanitation jobs, as well as in pharmacy, medical information, medical technician, and nursing jobs. In contrast, the trend is flat or down versus two weeks ago for many office sectors like legal, IT operations, accounting, and marketing.
Where job postings have declined most
Within the US, the trend in job postings is down most in metro Honolulu, San Francisco, and San Jose.
Job postings fell more initially in travel and tourism destinations, large and small, but postings have picked up since May 1 in hospitality metros like Las Vegas, Miami, and Orlando. Job postings have rebounded much more slowly in metros where more of the jobs can be done from home. In work-from-home metros, postings in retail, restaurant, and personal-services jobs have suffered.
Most recently, job postings are climbing a bit more slowly in metros where new COVID19 cases have surged this summer. In the last week, the trend in postings was up 0.4 percentage points in surge metros versus 1.0 point in all other metros. Job postings are down in Miami, with a very high rate of new cases, relative to two weeks ago. Previously, job postings were increasing faster in May and June in metros that would experience the summer case surge.
We’ll be regularly updating this data. We also host the data behind the postings trends plots on Github as downloadable CSV files. Typically, it will be updated with the latest data one day after the respective Hiring Lab tracker is published.
To measure the trends in job postings, we calculated the 7-day moving average of the number of US job postings on Indeed. We index each day’s 7-day moving average to the start of that year (Feb 1, 2020 = 100 for 2020 data, and so on), or another date if specified on the chart.
We report how the trend in job postings this year differs from last year, in order to focus on the recent changes in labor market conditions due to COVID-19. For example: if job postings for a country increased 30% from February 1, 2019, to May 22, 2019, but only 20% from February 1, 2020, to May 22, 2020, then the index would have risen from 100 to 130 in 2019 and 100 to 120 in 2020. The year-to-date trend in job postings would therefore be down 7.7% on May 22 (120 is 7.7% below 130) in 2020 relative to 2019.
For new postings, we calculate a similar metric but the underlying measure is the number of postings that have been on Indeed for seven days or less.
In the tables for this post, the caption “change in trend in postings” represents the percent change in job growth rate from February 1 compared to the same date the year prior.
Information based on publicly available information on the Indeed US website (and any other countries named in the post), limited to the United States, is not a projection of future events, and includes both paid and unpaid job solicitations.
For the salary tiers chart, we divided occupations into thirds based on average wages/salaries in job postings in 2019. Examples of occupations in each tier:
- lower: retail sales associate, sales associate, nursing assistant
- middle: store manager, driver, warehouse worker
- higher: registered nurse, software engineer, project manager
Jed Kolko is Chief Economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab. Previously he was Chief Economist and VP of Analytics at Trulia, the online real estate marketplace. He has also led research teams at the Public Policy Institute of California and at Forrester Research. Jed specializes in using large-scale proprietary and publicly available datasets to uncover insights about labor markets, the future of work, demographics, housing markets, and urban trends. He earned his B.A. in social studies and his Ph.D. in economics at Harvard University.