Coronavirus and US Job Postings Through June 12: Data from Indeed.com
The trend in job postings was 31% lower than in 2019 as of June 12 — the sixth week of gradual improvement.
We will be regularly updating this data as we track how coronavirus impacts the global labor market.
The global economy has slowed dramatically during the coronavirus pandemic. The trend in job postings — a real-time measure of labor market activity — is 31.3% lower than in 2019, as of June 12. The trend has improved over the past six weeks relative to May 1, when the trend was down 39.3% from a year earlier.
The trend in job postings was roughly in line with last year’s trend until the second week of March. Postings were growing 2.9% slower than the trend in 2019 on March 15. The slowdown accelerated in the second half of March and through April to a low point on May 1, when the trend was down 39.3%.
New postings — those on Indeed for a week or less — were down 17.7% for the same time period. That’s a significant improvement over April and May. Keep in mind that the trend in new postings is more volatile than that of all postings.
Hospitality and tourism jobs have seen the biggest decline
Job postings have fallen most in occupations directly affected by the coronavirus such as hospitality & tourism, arts & entertainment, and childcare, where the trend in postings is down by a half or more versus last year.
Postings are down across the board, even in sectors not directly impacted by the coronavirus and where many jobs can be done from home. Software development postings are 38.1% below last year’s trend, and banking and financing job postings are down 51.8%. Jobs related to logistics and supply chain management are a relatively bright spot in the labor market, with job postings now growing slightly faster than last year. Driving job postings are almost back to 2019’s trend.
The trend in postings for the US overall improved in the past six weeks — but not in all sectors. Postings for dental jobs and beauty & wellness jobs have rebounded since May 1. Food preparation job postings have also trended upward since May 1, though of course they are still below last year’s levels. Postings continue to trend downward in several higher-paid sectors like software development, banking & finance, and scientific research.
Where job postings have declined most
Within the US, the trend in job postings is down most in metro Honolulu, Miami, and San Francisco. Job postings fell more initially in travel and tourism destinations, large and small, but postings have started to pick up since May 1 in some destination metros like Las Vegas, Miami, and Orlando. Job postings have continued to decline in San Francisco, New York, and Seattle, even though more of their workforces are in jobs that can be done from home.
Job postings have rebounded more — after falling less to begin with — in smaller metropolitan areas and more rural communities. But job postings remain farther below last year’s trend in the largest metros and in places that are social distancing more. In metros where more of the workforce is in jobs that can be done from home, job postings are 38% below last year’s trend and only minimally picking up. In contrast, job postings have rebounded more in metros that depend on hospitality & tourism.
We’ll be regularly updating this data. We also host the data behind the postings trends plots on Github as downloadable CSV files. Typically, it will be updated with the latest data one day after the respective Hiring Lab tracker is published.
To measure the trends in job postings, we calculated the 7-day moving average of the number of US job postings on Indeed. We index each day’s 7-day moving average to the start of that year (Feb 1, 2020 = 100 for 2020 data, and so on), or another date if specified on the chart.
We report how the trend in job postings this year differs from last year, in order to focus on the recent changes in labor market conditions due to COVID-19. For example: if job postings for a country increased 30% from February 1, 2019, to May 22, 2019, but only 20% from February 1, 2020, to May 22, 2020, then the index would have risen from 100 to 130 in 2019 and 100 to 120 in 2020. The year-to-date trend in job postings would therefore be down 7.7% on May 22 (120 is 7.7% below 130) in 2020 relative to 2019.
For new postings, we calculate a similar metric but the underlying measure is the number of postings that have been on Indeed for seven days or less.
In the tables for this post, the caption “change in trend in postings” represents the percent change in job growth rate from February 1 compared to the same date the year prior.
Information based on publicly available information on the Indeed US website (and any other countries named in the post), limited to the United States, is not a projection of future events, and includes both paid and unpaid job solicitations.
Jed Kolko is Chief Economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab. Previously he was Chief Economist and VP of Analytics at Trulia, the online real estate marketplace. He has also led research teams at the Public Policy Institute of California and at Forrester Research. Jed specializes in using large-scale proprietary and publicly available datasets to uncover insights about labor markets, the future of work, demographics, housing markets, and urban trends. He earned his B.A. in social studies and his Ph.D. in economics at Harvard University.