State of the Labor Market

June Jobs Report: Despite Discussion of Tariffs, Job Growth Keeps Chugging Along

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This recovery continues on its record-breaking pace.

While tariffs may slow down job growth moving forward, there is no sign yet in the June jobs report. With payroll job growth coming in at 213,000 (about typical for this recovery), this recovery continues on its record-breaking pace. We just hit 93 straight months of job growth – a new historical record. Notably, manufacturing job growth was strong in June, growing 3.5% at an annualized rate compared to its rate over the last year of 2.3%.

On the household side, the status quo continues to reign. While the unemployment rate went up to 4.0%, that jump is not a cause for concern as this number remains near record lows. In addition, the prime-age employment rate ticked up after stalling out for several months, and the part-time for economic reasons rate finally dropped below 3.0%. Unfortunately, after hitting its pre-recession low last month, the long-term unemployment rate ticked back up to 0.9%.

Wage growth continues to bounce around in the range that we’ve seen since the beginning of 2016. With payroll growth continuing at this pace, and several measures on the household side, such as the prime-age employment rate, still not fully recovered, it seems likely that workers may have to continue to wait to see wage growth show up in the numbers.

 

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