A Solid, Though Not Spectacular, Bounce-back for the Canadian Labour Market

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Any doubts that the recent pause in Canadian job growth might lead the Bank of Canada to hold-off on a rate hike have likely eased with today’s job numbers. The solid, though not spectacular, bounce-back in job growth will further bolster financial market expectations that a rate hike is on the horizon this coming Wednesday.

While the unemployment rate edged up in June, this primarily reflected an uptick in labour force participation as more people were searching for work. The total employment rate held steady, while the working-age employment rate, which excludes those 65 and older, reversed its losses from May, and remains near its all-time high reached in December.  

Interestingly, Ontario led the way in terms of job growth, despite its outsized exposure to ongoing trade tensions with the US. With recent international developments, how the labour market plays out in Canada’s largest province, particularly in manufacturing, will be important to watch.

 

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